{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f0fd9ab-f219-456f-be49-5c6875f9666e", "symbol": "ALINK", "name": "21Shares Chainlink ETP", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.015, "architecture_energy": 24.19, "architecture_maturity": 76.095, "architecture_confidence": 82.368, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.45, "rotation_up": 27.01, "upward_expansion": 15.15, "deceleration": 46.76, "rotation_down": 29.88, "downward_expansion": 62.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.305567, 7.219855, 7.459686, 7.623088 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.2686, "trend_reference": 7.99158, "distance_from_trend": -0.090468, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.477566, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.460689, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.330827, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.045865, "excess_performance": -0.099176, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090468, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164579, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.460689, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107148, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.403308, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061295, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045865, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.85867, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1267, "relative_activity": 0.349426, "balance": 0.85867, "dry_up": 0.285925, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065139, "annualized_volatility": 0.430027, "from_high_reference": -0.691555, "from_low_reference": 0.1199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.99158, "fair_value_reference": 13.477566, "structural_low": 6.4904, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.026368, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.008807, "regime_survival": 0.842105, "best_return": 0.501816, "worst_return": -0.274859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.016567, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.013333, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.672767, "worst_return": -0.287548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.555111, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.558178, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 2.032922, "worst_return": -0.332749, "sufficient": false }, { 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042065, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.153129, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15062, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086251, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010092, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-07", 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.739819, "energy": 58.191762, "activity_lines": [ 7.042833, 7.23164, 7.60764, 7.874566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.5338, "volume": 1398, "typical_volume": 4118.05, "trend": 8.39873, "fair_value": 13.481156, "relative_strength": -38.436729, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.770469, "energy": 45.672301, "activity_lines": [ 7.208893, 7.225638, 7.583637, 7.811115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.4889, "volume": 387, "typical_volume": 3916.9, "trend": 8.290993, "fair_value": 13.478595, "relative_strength": -38.149998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.797969, "energy": 34.272935, "activity_lines": [ 7.324073, 7.232193, 7.555856, 7.752417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.1608, "volume": 1095, "typical_volume": 3695.1, "trend": 8.143003, "fair_value": 13.478856, "relative_strength": -40.922027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.802873, "energy": 28.409199, "activity_lines": [ 7.297093, 7.202931, 7.499922, 7.679501 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.2686, "volume": 1267, "typical_volume": 3625.95, "trend": 7.99158, "fair_value": 13.477566, "relative_strength": -40.330827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.015118, "energy": 24.189882, "activity_lines": [ 7.305567, 7.219855, 7.459686, 7.623088 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }