{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f123b31-f710-41b9-a97c-a6d0c3b2ee4a", "symbol": "HXQ", "name": "Global X NASDAQ-100 Index Corporate Class ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.377, "architecture_energy": 29.188, "architecture_maturity": 67.348, "architecture_confidence": 89.01, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.94, "rotation_up": 31.03, "upward_expansion": 61.65, "deceleration": 85.49, "rotation_down": 30.97, "downward_expansion": 20.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 116.425334, 117.677455, 116.539238, 112.682882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 119.260002, "trend_reference": 107.991334, "distance_from_trend": 0.104348, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 84.726218, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.407593, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.05763, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.211992, "excess_performance": 0.091571, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.104348, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057515, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.407593, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.03578, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020576, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037403, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.211992, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.542528, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 99900, "relative_activity": 0.932904, "balance": 2.542528, "dry_up": 1.156558, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040422, "annualized_volatility": 0.206071, "from_high_reference": -0.037993, "from_low_reference": 0.310549 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.991334, "fair_value_reference": 84.726218, "structural_low": 91.480003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.036723, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.018973, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.088569, "worst_return": -0.016919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.06565, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.026565, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.156121, "worst_return": -0.06184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.187353, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.052167, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.231826, "worst_return": -0.062405, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086471, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.104557, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025194, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02077, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001728, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055919, 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106.959334, "fair_value": 83.972564, "relative_strength": 0.18993, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.146604, "energy": 36.774332, "activity_lines": [ 117.081334, 118.360909, 115.510953, 111.462688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 114.059998, "volume": 167200, "typical_volume": 107050.0, "trend": 107.447667, "fair_value": 84.330641, "relative_strength": 0.762804, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.755908, "energy": 25.578631, "activity_lines": [ 115.741334, 117.518727, 115.819952, 111.920796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 119.260002, "volume": 99900, "typical_volume": 107085.0, "trend": 107.991334, "fair_value": 84.726218, "relative_strength": 2.05763, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.377205, "energy": 29.188417, "activity_lines": [ 116.425334, 117.677455, 116.539238, 112.682882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }