{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f23e5f8-dc5e-46d8-94c7-9aabf9adeb96", "symbol": "166400", "name": "Mirae Asset TIGER200 Covered Call 5% OTM ETF - Equity - Derivatives", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.461, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 13.091, "architecture_energy": 15.638, "architecture_maturity": 32.112, "architecture_confidence": 79.099, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.46, "rotation_up": 18.73, "upward_expansion": 53.02, "deceleration": 91.04, "rotation_down": 36.35, "downward_expansion": 19.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 22156.696745, 22905.477947, 22895.500195, 22242.082124 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 21185.0, "trend_reference": 21214.670117, "distance_from_trend": -0.001399, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14115.544747, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.500828, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.9231, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.1529, "excess_performance": -0.076928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001399, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12272, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.500828, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.22588, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.069231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173526, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1529, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.671699, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7789, "relative_activity": 0.347083, "balance": 0.671699, "dry_up": 0.521615, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114501, "annualized_volatility": 0.298305, "from_high_reference": -0.174567, "from_low_reference": 0.587906 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21214.670117, "fair_value_reference": 14115.544747, "structural_low": 16121.220564, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009881, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00717, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.065799, "worst_return": -0.060473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0331, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.015999, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.085962, "worst_return": -0.07804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.08339, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.010672, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15687, "worst_return": -0.181914, 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.869781, "energy": 17.97678, "activity_lines": [ 22846.621745, 23326.172905, 23009.178004, 22235.950622 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21185.0, "volume": 7789, "typical_volume": 22441.35, "trend": 21214.670117, "fair_value": 14115.544747, "relative_strength": -6.9231, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.091412, "energy": 15.638322, "activity_lines": [ 22156.696745, 22905.477947, 22895.500195, 22242.082124 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }