{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f2d9ccd-d0db-4503-930c-aea08dfccd41", "symbol": "FBND", "name": "FIDELITY MERRIMACK STREET TRUST TOTAL BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 68.113, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.817, "architecture_energy": 53.757, "architecture_maturity": 4.558, "architecture_confidence": 89.417, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.78, "rotation_up": 11.88, "upward_expansion": 11.56, "deceleration": 38.32, "rotation_down": 64.68, "downward_expansion": 87.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.902901, 45.045393, 45.150812, 45.222607 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 45.0, "trend_reference": 45.315924, "distance_from_trend": -0.006972, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.772984, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052066, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.331439, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01025, "excess_performance": -0.135875, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006972, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000409, "read": "Falling" 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14866656, "typical_volume": 13236527.75, "trend": 45.34413, "fair_value": 42.701738, "relative_strength": -8.277628, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.16281, "energy": 48.378464, "activity_lines": [ 45.043592, 45.165383, 45.22151, 45.284012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.72, "volume": 14886950, "typical_volume": 13254987.65, "trend": 45.327652, "fair_value": 42.735789, "relative_strength": -9.100854, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.864854, "energy": 60.334358, "activity_lines": [ 44.901594, 45.076832, 45.171618, 45.243746 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.0, "volume": 14191178, "typical_volume": 13283999.5, "trend": 45.315924, "fair_value": 42.772984, "relative_strength": -11.331439, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.817353, "energy": 53.756582, "activity_lines": [ 44.902901, 45.045393, 45.150812, 45.222607 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }