{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f2e6b24-7a2a-4232-89c3-a15ffa7551ae", "symbol": "OIBR4", "name": "Oi S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.45, "architecture_energy": 89.758, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.257, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.17, "rotation_up": 8.07, "upward_expansion": 21.71, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 85.3, "downward_expansion": 99.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.449333, 0.596909, 0.833952, 0.977914 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.44, "trend_reference": 1.132667, "distance_from_trend": -0.611536, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.808141, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.955139, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -84.906466, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.661538, "excess_performance": -0.60449, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.611536, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.350038, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.955139, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059226, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.849065, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064963, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.661538, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.172625, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11400, "relative_activity": 1.618169, "balance": 0.172625, "dry_up": 2.338538, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.215035, "annualized_volatility": 1.014881, "from_high_reference": -0.946924, "from_low_reference": 0.294118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.132667, "fair_value_reference": 9.808141, "structural_low": 0.34, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 54, "median_return": -0.063408, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.796296, "median_excess_return": -0.077846, "regime_survival": 0.925926, "best_return": 0.707006, "worst_return": -0.5375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.21875, "positive_rate": 0.176471, "directional_follow_through": 0.823529, "median_excess_return": -0.182095, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.218182, "worst_return": -0.663934, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.43433, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.373079, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": -0.01954, "worst_return": -0.82377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-09-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-08", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.263415, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098039, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121693, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.137179, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Extended", 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.326249, "energy": 97.927685, "activity_lines": [ 0.916, 1.027818, 1.146714, 1.234452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.66, "volume": 6800, "typical_volume": 4605.0, "trend": 1.342667, "fair_value": 10.508718, "relative_strength": -82.485875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -97.23715, "energy": 99.001408, "activity_lines": [ 0.808667, 0.948, 1.091667, 1.186731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.6, "volume": 16000, "typical_volume": 5135.0, "trend": 1.29, "fair_value": 10.326667, "relative_strength": -82.747799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.994078, "energy": 98.236719, "activity_lines": [ 0.714, 0.867636, 1.035286, 1.138817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4, "volume": 18700, "typical_volume": 5805.0, "trend": 1.234667, "fair_value": 10.143974, "relative_strength": -87.845801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -98.148804, "energy": 99.335635, "activity_lines": [ 0.588, 0.762364, 0.963143, 1.081398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.37, "volume": 19800, "typical_volume": 6715.0, "trend": 1.179333, "fair_value": 9.968141, "relative_strength": -88.40779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.559074, "energy": 98.079023, "activity_lines": [ 0.491333, 0.665273, 0.892619, 1.025613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.44, "volume": 11400, "typical_volume": 7045.0, "trend": 1.132667, "fair_value": 9.808141, "relative_strength": -84.906466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.449925, "energy": 89.758268, "activity_lines": [ 0.449333, 0.596909, 0.833952, 0.977914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }