{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f30b643-a824-4db6-9566-77ce262e9f38", "symbol": "WGMI", "name": "COINSHARES BITCOIN MINING ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 85.813, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -0.239, "architecture_energy": 16.024, "architecture_maturity": 45.339, "architecture_confidence": 77.346, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.15, "rotation_up": 14.82, "upward_expansion": 41.24, "deceleration": 85.4, "rotation_down": 42.33, "downward_expansion": 35.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.616667, 54.191818, 56.192571, 53.288484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 48.4, "trend_reference": 49.938333, "distance_from_trend": -0.030805, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.655637, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.750095, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.110404, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.197131, "excess_performance": 0.009677, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030805, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100497, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.750095, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.680465, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091104, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.384422, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.197131, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.70933, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2906154, "relative_activity": 0.979105, "balance": 0.70933, "dry_up": 1.026756, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.229177, "annualized_volatility": 0.699863, "from_high_reference": -0.370938, "from_low_reference": 0.944556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.938333, "fair_value_reference": 27.655637, "structural_low": 31.79, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.151409, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.150977, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.283997, "worst_return": -0.263187, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.176543, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.158487, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.707372, "worst_return": -0.521182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.208803, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.07415, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.660462, "worst_return": -0.049396, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.588474, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.151113, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100269, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.524038, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.176543, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"relative_strength": 5.16763, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.466936, "energy": 37.079669, "activity_lines": [ 62.58, 62.829636, 56.575976, 52.586097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 55.5, "volume": 2799071, "typical_volume": 2888767.3, "trend": 48.835, "fair_value": 26.753526, "relative_strength": 6.866726, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.813345, "energy": 26.598076, "activity_lines": [ 59.841333, 61.792909, 57.030262, 53.043538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 47.57, "volume": 2257376, "typical_volume": 2892087.85, "trend": 49.050667, "fair_value": 26.954692, "relative_strength": -4.952459, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.586395, "energy": 19.937856, "activity_lines": [ 54.865333, 59.181455, 56.65, 52.961925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.59, "volume": 2887445, "typical_volume": 2859304.35, "trend": 49.512, "fair_value": 27.197159, "relative_strength": 7.911807, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.849212, "energy": 23.990216, "activity_lines": [ 53.122667, 57.854545, 56.806452, 53.254785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 51.46, "volume": 4139385, "typical_volume": 2921553.25, "trend": 49.825667, "fair_value": 27.436301, "relative_strength": 2.180338, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.693766, "energy": 17.076065, "activity_lines": [ 51.904, 56.206182, 56.676619, 53.380462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.4, "volume": 2906154, "typical_volume": 2968173.65, "trend": 49.938333, "fair_value": 27.655637, "relative_strength": -9.110404, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.239384, "energy": 16.023628, "activity_lines": [ 50.616667, 54.191818, 56.192571, 53.288484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }