{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f378d1c-e5cf-4607-b83c-e3dbaf2f531a", "symbol": "MCHP", "name": "Microchip Technology Incorporated", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.893, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -53.049, "architecture_energy": 73.932, "architecture_maturity": 8.9, "architecture_confidence": 91.62, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.73, "rotation_up": 14.0, "upward_expansion": 34.44, "deceleration": 50.83, "rotation_down": 75.11, "downward_expansion": 50.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 1387.907991, 1458.587267, 1507.50307, 1463.084936 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1290.420044, "trend_reference": 1412.219014, "distance_from_trend": -0.086247, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1352.22614, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.045707, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.771119, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.003534, "excess_performance": 0.051133, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086247, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.098557, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.045707, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.292144, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.037711, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.254144, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.003534, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.077809, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3242, "relative_activity": 3.223786, "balance": 0.077809, "dry_up": 0.98767, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048361, "annualized_volatility": 0.448836, "from_high_reference": -0.262407, "from_low_reference": 0.419609 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1412.219014, "fair_value_reference": 1352.22614, "structural_low": 1099.687134, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.036725, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.020976, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.360622, "worst_return": -0.203073, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.074282, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.044381, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.454959, "worst_return": -0.22349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020927, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004752, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.5106, "worst_return": -0.219317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000402, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.155018, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.190722, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005809, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.143643, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": 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"relative_strength": 3.430061, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -17.556338, "energy": 32.709623, "activity_lines": [ 1452.178638, 1504.70253, 1524.561479, 1471.075711 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1290.420044, "volume": 3242, "typical_volume": 1005.65, "trend": 1412.219014, "fair_value": 1352.22614, "relative_strength": -3.771119, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -53.048657, "energy": 73.931538, "activity_lines": [ 1387.907991, 1458.587267, 1507.50307, 1463.084936 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }