{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f3beaae-71de-41c7-9984-b18993236b26", "symbol": "300644", "name": "Nanjing Julong Science & Technology Co.,LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.96, "architecture_energy": 82.15, "architecture_maturity": 61.34, "architecture_confidence": 91.461, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.01, "rotation_up": 12.14, "upward_expansion": 20.06, "deceleration": 38.29, "rotation_down": 72.71, "downward_expansion": 93.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.717334, 21.922976, 24.015471, 25.799622 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.66, "trend_reference": 28.565784, "distance_from_trend": -0.24175, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.114114, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.101771, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.580549, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.37687, "excess_performance": -0.38427, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.24175, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112156, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.101771, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.362028, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.335805, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085167, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.37687, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.471753, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9760682, "relative_activity": 0.835825, "balance": 0.471753, "dry_up": 0.980368, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103382, "annualized_volatility": 0.423785, "from_high_reference": -0.492383, "from_low_reference": 0.167026 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.565784, "fair_value_reference": 24.114114, "structural_low": 18.559999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.029179, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.000561, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.22315, "worst_return": -0.159161, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.04057, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.080193, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.537884, "worst_return": -0.16683, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.14782, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.204463, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.352602, "worst_return": -0.242328, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 24.052185, "relative_strength": -36.518435, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.234952, "energy": 61.854504, "activity_lines": [ 24.14201, 24.87396, 26.512872, 28.204512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.73, "volume": 11781341, "typical_volume": 12414527.4, "trend": 29.990451, "fair_value": 24.069349, "relative_strength": -36.042552, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.390454, "energy": 68.873133, "activity_lines": [ 22.906201, 23.944259, 25.821664, 27.581774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.040001, "volume": 13736343, "typical_volume": 12276594.0, "trend": 29.538784, "fair_value": 24.07506, "relative_strength": -40.728051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.846175, "energy": 77.812136, "activity_lines": [ 21.391421, 22.869104, 25.038695, 26.875293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.280001, "volume": 10516200, "typical_volume": 11820700.0, "trend": 29.074117, "fair_value": 24.08872, "relative_strength": -35.217795, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.491236, "energy": 87.044891, "activity_lines": [ 20.721334, 22.20195, 24.435298, 26.277952 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.66, "volume": 9760682, "typical_volume": 11677896.6, "trend": 28.565784, "fair_value": 24.114114, "relative_strength": -33.580549, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.959782, "energy": 82.149951, "activity_lines": [ 20.717334, 21.922976, 24.015471, 25.799622 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }