{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f4472e8-fcd1-4402-9fd0-048385b7133c", "symbol": "TECILCHEM", "name": "Tecil Chemicals and Hydro Power Ltd.", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.916, "architecture_energy": 58.434, "architecture_maturity": 78.972, "architecture_confidence": 93.614, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.97, "rotation_up": 19.79, "upward_expansion": 9.75, "deceleration": 45.64, "rotation_down": 63.83, "downward_expansion": 85.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.670667, 10.008364, 10.858429, 11.433226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.19, "trend_reference": 12.376333, "distance_from_trend": -0.257454, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.820962, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.558618, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.827539, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.366644, "excess_performance": -0.322935, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.257454, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184659, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.558618, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175981, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.388275, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138773, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.366644, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.150957, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 374248, "relative_activity": 6.01149, "balance": 0.150957, "dry_up": 1.9455, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138529, "annualized_volatility": 0.418691, "from_high_reference": -0.598164, "from_low_reference": 0.044318 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.376333, "fair_value_reference": 20.820962, "structural_low": 8.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.057436, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.069646, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.944175, "worst_return": -0.159627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.157509, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.12857, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": -0.003883, "worst_return": -0.257824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.184645, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.183291, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.000971, "worst_return": -0.368319, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-17", "close": 10.38, "volume": 35436, "typical_volume": 43581.6, "trend": 13.223, "fair_value": 21.005064, "relative_strength": -32.783054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.479375, "energy": 65.234045, "activity_lines": [ 10.246, 10.721091, 11.479286, 12.07572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.96, "volume": 37644, "typical_volume": 43354.85, "trend": 12.933667, "fair_value": 20.94391, "relative_strength": -33.080981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.34022, "energy": 64.6115, "activity_lines": [ 10.101333, 10.503818, 11.292476, 11.865204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.68, "volume": 37144, "typical_volume": 44586.4, "trend": 12.632, "fair_value": 20.880962, "relative_strength": -35.817953, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.150361, "energy": 63.737217, "activity_lines": [ 9.945333, 10.273455, 11.092524, 11.65529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.19, "volume": 374248, "typical_volume": 62255.45, "trend": 12.376333, "fair_value": 20.820962, "relative_strength": -38.827539, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.915815, "energy": 58.434297, "activity_lines": [ 9.670667, 10.008364, 10.858429, 11.433226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }