{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f466eed-b28d-4000-b89f-a8cf4fd67db5", "symbol": "CMG", "name": "Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 91.487, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.133, "architecture_energy": 12.954, "architecture_maturity": 23.3, "architecture_confidence": 69.415, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.76, "rotation_up": 28.93, "upward_expansion": 33.98, "deceleration": 40.53, "rotation_down": 31.87, "downward_expansion": 44.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 593.206006, 589.871822, 581.56505, 586.290433 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 562.01001, "trend_reference": 602.522337, "distance_from_trend": -0.067238, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 866.949064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.351738, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.849614, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.167393, "excess_performance": -0.112726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.067238, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029847, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.351738, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003718, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148496, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.171923, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.167393, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.152369, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13706, "relative_activity": 1.899864, "balance": 0.152369, "dry_up": 0.879377, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076449, "annualized_volatility": 0.434847, "from_high_reference": -0.324507, "from_low_reference": 0.10198 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 602.522337, "fair_value_reference": 866.949064, "structural_low": 510.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.031687, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.023113, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.209095, "worst_return": -0.244757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.096718, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.064225, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.279389, "worst_return": -0.276206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.008212, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.01932, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.523839, "worst_return": 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606.870003, 593.014729, 583.413192, 589.243895 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 562.01001, "volume": 13706, "typical_volume": 7214.2, "trend": 602.522337, "fair_value": 866.949064, "relative_strength": -14.849614, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.133061, "energy": 12.954339, "activity_lines": [ 593.206006, 589.871822, 581.56505, 586.290433 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }