{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f479156-b49d-41f7-94dd-a9c36b8dd8e8", "symbol": "MARPS", "name": "Marine Petroleum Trust", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 59.529, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 7.922, "architecture_energy": 11.673, "architecture_maturity": 12.721, "architecture_confidence": 54.485, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.47, "rotation_up": 48.67, "upward_expansion": 33.67, "deceleration": 39.49, "rotation_down": 16.78, "downward_expansion": 17.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.800373, 4.726447, 4.740483, 4.790414 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.81, "trend_reference": 4.776176, "distance_from_trend": 0.007082, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.978512, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208995, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.132291, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062256, "excess_performance": -0.125198, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007082, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039359, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208995, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000394, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081323, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013436, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062256, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.395803, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20192, "relative_activity": 0.255014, "balance": 2.395803, "dry_up": 0.523075, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071357, "annualized_volatility": 0.402192, "from_high_reference": -0.244106, "from_low_reference": 0.235364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.776176, "fair_value_reference": 3.978512, "structural_low": 4.105092, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.021608, "positive_rate": 0.607143, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": 0.02477, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 1.313253, "worst_return": -0.160256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.010042, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.013698, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.812524, "worst_return": -0.187839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.040976, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.02319, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.796888, "worst_return": -0.244489, "sufficient": 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107679, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034783, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032289, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020225, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.110843, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", 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4.762772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.9978, "volume": 96333, "typical_volume": 214006.2, "trend": 4.706483, "fair_value": 3.974961, "relative_strength": -1.319222, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.541517, "energy": 10.8656, "activity_lines": [ 4.745933, 4.680925, 4.770897, 4.783383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.74, "volume": 32058, "typical_volume": 139575.6, "trend": 4.724763, "fair_value": 3.976331, "relative_strength": -4.674184, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.880594, "energy": 10.963516, "activity_lines": [ 4.783413, 4.688961, 4.75658, 4.785546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.74, "volume": 17085, "typical_volume": 90993.4, "trend": 4.749772, "fair_value": 3.976542, "relative_strength": -5.014016, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.185847, "energy": 12.114821, "activity_lines": [ 4.788893, 4.699953, 4.744554, 4.786529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.81, "volume": 20192, "typical_volume": 79179.85, "trend": 4.776176, "fair_value": 3.978512, "relative_strength": -8.132291, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.922444, "energy": 11.673058, "activity_lines": [ 4.800373, 4.726447, 4.740483, 4.790414 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }