{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f54854c-7d9d-4e10-80dd-9ae7d0637069", "symbol": "TAP-A", "name": "Molson Coors Beverage Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.438, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.554, "architecture_energy": 74.993, "architecture_maturity": 13.769, "architecture_confidence": 81.749, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.3, "rotation_up": 12.02, "upward_expansion": 20.14, "deceleration": 34.26, "rotation_down": 69.88, "downward_expansion": 88.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.959333, 42.48, 43.438099, 44.595142 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 41.75, "trend_reference": 46.240451, "distance_from_trend": -0.097111, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 53.550385, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.22036, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.338821, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.130923, "excess_performance": -0.256548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097111, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021201, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.22036, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006152, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213388, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023503, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.785394, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1090, "relative_activity": 1.234638, "balance": 2.785394, "dry_up": 1.50252, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058799, "annualized_volatility": 0.451648, "from_high_reference": -0.238625, "from_low_reference": 0.056695 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.240451, "fair_value_reference": 53.550385, "structural_low": 39.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.008949, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.012946, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.127557, "worst_return": -0.176875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.017181, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.071604, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.197566, "worst_return": -0.127605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.003284, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.119054, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.128093, "worst_return": -0.147704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 47.255783, "fair_value": 54.525756, "relative_strength": -15.850209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.716906, "energy": 29.19978, "activity_lines": [ 44.474579, 44.323156, 45.715598, 46.631168 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 45.5, "volume": 695, "typical_volume": 905.1, "trend": 47.298368, "fair_value": 54.427215, "relative_strength": -15.567357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.187804, "energy": 24.803758, "activity_lines": [ 45.030337, 44.444589, 45.562167, 46.517892 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 48.0, "volume": 2340, "typical_volume": 957.75, "trend": 47.425741, "fair_value": 54.344699, "relative_strength": -8.357682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.957378, "energy": 19.746093, "activity_lines": [ 46.221333, 45.054877, 45.659203, 46.563159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 47.8, "volume": 505, "typical_volume": 899.75, "trend": 47.488035, "fair_value": 54.26393, "relative_strength": -10.272247, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.552718, "energy": 20.602539, "activity_lines": [ 46.877333, 45.617656, 45.73738, 46.587304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.31, "volume": 1312, "typical_volume": 824.35, "trend": 47.220907, "fair_value": 54.135148, "relative_strength": -24.701793, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.482299, "energy": 25.800576, "activity_lines": [ 44.864667, 44.811107, 45.135723, 46.124205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.0, "volume": 1972, "typical_volume": 849.15, "trend": 46.925462, "fair_value": 54.010789, "relative_strength": -21.57802, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.333106, "energy": 40.738378, "activity_lines": [ 43.409333, 44.205612, 44.645366, 45.722856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.51, "volume": 625, "typical_volume": 844.8, "trend": 46.580349, "fair_value": 53.858766, "relative_strength": -23.349066, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.951605, "energy": 73.008111, "activity_lines": [ 41.738667, 43.357001, 44.064837, 45.24444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.2, "volume": 1619, "typical_volume": 881.1, "trend": 46.433756, "fair_value": 53.702084, "relative_strength": -20.264582, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.970625, "energy": 76.765726, "activity_lines": [ 41.030667, 42.870545, 43.70633, 44.89732 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.75, "volume": 1090, "typical_volume": 882.85, "trend": 46.240451, "fair_value": 53.550385, "relative_strength": -21.338821, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.55384, "energy": 74.993452, "activity_lines": [ 40.959333, 42.48, 43.438099, 44.595142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }