{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f5a2904-ba72-4066-bdf2-1616c9c214b1", "symbol": "AMX", "name": "Aerometrex Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 77.159, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.992, "architecture_energy": 13.386, "architecture_maturity": 37.001, "architecture_confidence": 73.805, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.7, "rotation_up": 37.86, "upward_expansion": 37.98, "deceleration": 62.73, "rotation_down": 35.49, "downward_expansion": 21.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.270667, 0.269227, 0.264488, 0.262715 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.285, "trend_reference": 0.262917, "distance_from_trend": 0.083994, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.282949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.00725, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.543078, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.017857, "excess_performance": -0.045849, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083994, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003474, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.00725, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155408, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.065431, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065432, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.017857, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.359305, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 304533, "relative_activity": 1.60789, "balance": 9.359305, "dry_up": 0.614819, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092443, "annualized_volatility": 0.629921, "from_high_reference": -0.185714, "from_low_reference": 0.628571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.262917, "fair_value_reference": 0.282949, "structural_low": 0.195, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.027778, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.018386, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.416667, "worst_return": -0.222222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.049908, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.034236, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.254545, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.144231, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.113174, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.4875, "worst_return": -0.267606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.056338, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.171474, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.1375, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.054264, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.220588, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.203704, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019608, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054545, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.267333, 0.266273, 0.259929, 0.261022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.27, "volume": 16122, "typical_volume": 202556.25, "trend": 0.263417, "fair_value": 0.283782, "relative_strength": 7.339511, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.555082, "energy": 17.210838, "activity_lines": [ 0.268333, 0.266864, 0.261131, 0.261489 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.26, "volume": 19530, "typical_volume": 195111.9, "trend": 0.262583, "fair_value": 0.283237, "relative_strength": 0.690523, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.651215, "energy": 4.069625, "activity_lines": [ 0.265333, 0.265727, 0.261619, 0.261269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.285, "volume": 304533, "typical_volume": 189399.2, "trend": 0.262917, "fair_value": 0.282949, "relative_strength": 6.543078, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.991541, "energy": 13.385862, "activity_lines": [ 0.270667, 0.269227, 0.264488, 0.262715 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }