{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f5b7030-db67-4395-95f3-a7f8228286b9", "symbol": "USD", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST PROSHARES ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.855, "architecture_energy": 16.417, "architecture_maturity": 66.332, "architecture_confidence": 92.685, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.36, "rotation_up": 26.79, "upward_expansion": 49.74, "deceleration": 81.75, "rotation_down": 30.58, "downward_expansion": 25.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.787333, 89.202254, 89.622815, 83.048812 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 93.67, "trend_reference": 74.429883, "distance_from_trend": 0.2585, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.952113, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.46811, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 31.968381, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.684791, "excess_performance": 0.559167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.2585, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.210016, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.46811, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.594543, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.319684, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.401865, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.684791, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.962564, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3514004, "relative_activity": 0.747218, "balance": 0.962564, "dry_up": 0.869827, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184442, "annualized_volatility": 0.75971, "from_high_reference": -0.194771, "from_low_reference": 1.387446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.429883, "fair_value_reference": 37.952113, "structural_low": 42.555, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.070605, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.057724, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.457067, "worst_return": -0.250914, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.28135, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.206705, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.837981, "worst_return": -0.401137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.49962, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.438455, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.280656, "worst_return": -0.575315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.07109, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.270121, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.366287, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.263246, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.055779, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-06", 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"activity_lines": [ 95.165476, 95.756852, 87.639738, 79.608506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 82.26, "volume": 4195268, "typical_volume": 4688575.45, "trend": 71.303382, "fair_value": 36.504569, "relative_strength": 24.176062, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.405168, "energy": 21.041079, "activity_lines": [ 90.355917, 93.264743, 88.087829, 80.383713 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 85.74, "volume": 2863521, "typical_volume": 4628414.95, "trend": 72.34243, "fair_value": 36.978409, "relative_strength": 28.800218, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.447462, "energy": 20.095256, "activity_lines": [ 87.746667, 91.639883, 88.727017, 81.315108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 78.69, "volume": 5789628, "typical_volume": 4705191.8, "trend": 73.145147, "fair_value": 37.412908, "relative_strength": 15.970078, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.158904, "energy": 15.864389, "activity_lines": [ 84.308, 88.910443, 88.525983, 81.724628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.67, "volume": 3514004, "typical_volume": 4702780.25, "trend": 74.429883, "fair_value": 37.952113, "relative_strength": 31.968381, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.855262, "energy": 16.416758, "activity_lines": [ 86.787333, 89.202254, 89.622815, 83.048812 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }