{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f625b10-1c35-4414-b6b8-805048c4634d", "symbol": "KRMD", "name": "Repro Med Systems Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.997, "architecture_energy": 51.421, "architecture_maturity": 24.803, "architecture_confidence": 84.356, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.18, "rotation_up": 14.4, "upward_expansion": 10.3, "deceleration": 39.2, "rotation_down": 62.83, "downward_expansion": 78.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.878667, 4.027273, 4.063, 4.146903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.55, "trend_reference": 4.356, "distance_from_trend": -0.185032, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.346154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.06092, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.211314, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.278455, "excess_performance": -0.465909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185032, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089845, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.06092, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217071, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.312113, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128429, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.278455, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.574836, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1868228, "relative_activity": 2.610871, "balance": 0.574836, "dry_up": 1.397958, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127952, "annualized_volatility": 0.40088, "from_high_reference": -0.462772, "from_low_reference": 0.105919 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.356, "fair_value_reference": 3.346154, "structural_low": 3.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.035709, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -0.007432, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.238318, "worst_return": -0.228986, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.052746, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.005787, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.635983, "worst_return": -0.345, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.115344, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.167286, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.715976, "worst_return": -0.4275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.102615, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.150455, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.29386, "worst_return": -0.305322, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.162281, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.373016, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.123418, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192171, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.307692, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073964, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.209945, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087678, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011655, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.416667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.155844, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011682, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.133838, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170561, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.56, "volume": 367551, "typical_volume": 601666.25, "trend": 3.671333, "fair_value": 3.634872, "relative_strength": -33.655105, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", 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4.160476, 4.330946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.28, "volume": 491261, "typical_volume": 687259.2, "trend": 4.612333, "fair_value": 3.314295, "relative_strength": -18.009966, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.311388, "energy": 14.949307, "activity_lines": [ 4.302667, 4.188727, 4.164762, 4.30628 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.11, "volume": 502421, "typical_volume": 679294.25, "trend": 4.556, "fair_value": 3.321859, "relative_strength": -17.823853, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.513394, "energy": 16.401639, "activity_lines": [ 4.264, 4.184727, 4.155048, 4.273871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.83, "volume": 1005044, "typical_volume": 697068.35, "trend": 4.476, "fair_value": 3.329359, "relative_strength": -22.068661, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.054554, "energy": 20.262071, "activity_lines": [ 4.124667, 4.131455, 4.12181, 4.227032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.11, "volume": 625583, "typical_volume": 677625.4, "trend": 4.426, "fair_value": 3.339487, "relative_strength": -16.754341, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.624087, "energy": 20.775825, "activity_lines": [ 4.083333, 4.130364, 4.118667, 4.203419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.55, "volume": 1868228, "typical_volume": 715557.3, "trend": 4.356, "fair_value": 3.346154, "relative_strength": -31.211314, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.996611, "energy": 51.421229, "activity_lines": [ 3.878667, 4.027273, 4.063, 4.146903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }