{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f65c501-82fa-433d-98e0-27e8d9e1680b", "symbol": "XD9E", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI USA UCITS ETF 2C - EUR Hedged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.779, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.663, "architecture_energy": 61.991, "architecture_maturity": 62.214, "architecture_confidence": 62.367, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.87, "rotation_up": 53.75, "upward_expansion": 80.6, "deceleration": 69.07, "rotation_down": 27.62, "downward_expansion": 9.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 150.260666, 149.510726, 148.225952, 145.505204 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 154.270004, "trend_reference": 142.507, "distance_from_trend": 0.082543, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 119.595064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.289936, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.98361, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.117494, "excess_performance": -0.053398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082543, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029623, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.289936, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009236, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049836, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019666, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.117494, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.674876, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3669, "relative_activity": 0.408907, "balance": 1.674876, "dry_up": 0.897528, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017522, "annualized_volatility": 0.13258, "from_high_reference": -0.002005, "from_low_reference": 0.210436 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 142.507, "fair_value_reference": 119.595064, "structural_low": 127.449997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.009872, "positive_rate": 0.633333, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": 0.003339, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.063918, "worst_return": -0.061536, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.049292, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.018946, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.09809, "worst_return": -0.075508, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.0706, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.003727, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.13942, "worst_return": -0.011261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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61.348835, "activity_lines": [ 148.899334, 148.870546, 145.769858, 143.395463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 148.759995, "volume": 9034, "typical_volume": 17019.65, "trend": 141.361, "fair_value": 118.490769, "relative_strength": -5.661964, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.089056, "energy": 57.120999, "activity_lines": [ 148.945332, 148.886363, 146.382572, 143.897527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 148.119995, "volume": 6016, "typical_volume": 10115.85, "trend": 141.681, "fair_value": 118.837051, "relative_strength": -5.7356, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.981473, "energy": 51.936599, "activity_lines": [ 148.741997, 148.750544, 146.879571, 144.333591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 147.589996, "volume": 13494, "typical_volume": 10055.15, "trend": 142.019, "fair_value": 119.190897, "relative_strength": -6.544456, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.006325, "energy": 43.562277, "activity_lines": [ 148.423997, 148.509998, 147.269666, 144.714817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 154.270004, "volume": 3669, "typical_volume": 8972.7, "trend": 142.507, "fair_value": 119.595064, "relative_strength": -4.98361, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.663087, "energy": 61.991302, "activity_lines": [ 150.260666, 149.510726, 148.225952, 145.505204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }