{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f6a6691-bb31-4161-8ad0-a9661ff1c597", "symbol": "LVMH01", "name": "LVMH Mo\u00ebt Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Europ\u00e9enne", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.596, "architecture_energy": 15.641, "architecture_maturity": 27.974, "architecture_confidence": 71.608, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.35, "rotation_up": 11.2, "upward_expansion": 20.0, "deceleration": 66.54, "rotation_down": 46.9, "downward_expansion": 53.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.5, 11.632727, 11.554344, 11.532495 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.5, "trend_reference": 11.706277, "distance_from_trend": -0.017621, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.089613, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.183796, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.406679, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.069109, "excess_performance": -0.261434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.017621, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069279, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.183796, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028078, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204067, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003005, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069109, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.978198, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 447817, "relative_activity": 0.915322, "balance": 0.978198, "dry_up": 1.059976, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054181, "annualized_volatility": 0.277817, "from_high_reference": -0.234708, "from_low_reference": 0.095238 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.706277, "fair_value_reference": 14.089613, "structural_low": 10.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034069, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.225, "worst_return": -0.008264, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.225, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.208762, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.225, "worst_return": 0.225, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.048186, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.18766, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048186, "worst_return": 0.048186, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 11.7, "volume": 603828, "typical_volume": 522776.95, "trend": 12.080325, "fair_value": 14.163415, "relative_strength": -20.682989, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.869042, "energy": 12.300377, "activity_lines": [ 11.826667, 11.745455, 11.506389, 11.641427 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.0, "volume": 538159, "typical_volume": 531265.6, "trend": 11.999352, "fair_value": 14.147962, "relative_strength": -19.182745, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.936351, "energy": 6.543717, "activity_lines": [ 11.846667, 11.816364, 11.561645, 11.636245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.1, "volume": 741595, "typical_volume": 549847.35, "trend": 11.901556, "fair_value": 14.126345, "relative_strength": -25.053998, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.187807, "energy": 19.283688, "activity_lines": [ 11.593333, 11.710909, 11.532872, 11.578222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.5, "volume": 346783, "typical_volume": 537028.85, "trend": 11.807211, "fair_value": 14.10785, "relative_strength": -21.188723, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.644681, "energy": 17.690519, "activity_lines": [ 11.54, 11.674545, 11.544399, 11.552315 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.5, "volume": 447817, "typical_volume": 489245.35, "trend": 11.706277, "fair_value": 14.089613, "relative_strength": -20.406679, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.596331, "energy": 15.640711, "activity_lines": [ 11.5, 11.632727, 11.554344, 11.532495 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }