{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f6d1ecc-5d55-46b8-a838-dde865a5c1a7", "symbol": "002266", "name": "Zhefu Holding Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.439, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.623, "architecture_energy": 15.506, "architecture_maturity": 42.945, "architecture_confidence": 41.448, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.47, "rotation_up": 23.4, "upward_expansion": 20.94, "deceleration": 57.04, "rotation_down": 52.39, "downward_expansion": 38.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.742667, 4.822664, 4.892422, 4.85359 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.05, "trend_reference": 4.812702, "distance_from_trend": 0.049307, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.661985, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.379033, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.178763, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.039095, "excess_performance": 0.031695, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049307, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045826, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.379033, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180872, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.091788, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031427, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.039095, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.541824, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 437436988, "relative_activity": 1.03189, "balance": 0.541824, "dry_up": 1.093425, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083402, "annualized_volatility": 0.464276, "from_high_reference": -0.132302, "from_low_reference": 0.451149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.812702, "fair_value_reference": 3.661985, "structural_low": 4.017709, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.000956, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.021394, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.228889, "worst_return": -0.092486, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.026254, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003525, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.182927, "worst_return": -0.307179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.077347, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.023482, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.168293, "worst_return": -0.420391, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 4.42, "volume": 427620851, "typical_volume": 434553863.25, "trend": 4.770702, "fair_value": 3.652839, "relative_strength": -0.676053, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.196684, "energy": 13.980629, "activity_lines": [ 4.746667, 4.847567, 4.885099, 4.846735 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.61, "volume": 406503129, "typical_volume": 425373804.35, "trend": 4.783036, "fair_value": 3.655971, "relative_strength": 5.203792, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.181347, "energy": 21.374977, "activity_lines": [ 4.661333, 4.787398, 4.867237, 4.836367 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.05, "volume": 437436988, "typical_volume": 423918167.85, "trend": 4.812702, "fair_value": 3.661985, "relative_strength": 9.178763, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.623065, "energy": 15.505637, "activity_lines": [ 4.742667, 4.822664, 4.892422, 4.85359 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }