{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f77ddb8-4df3-4155-b567-7122b6b7bd91", "symbol": "FKU", "name": "FIRST TRUST UNITED KINGDOM ALPHADEX FUND", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 82.625, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 85.771, "architecture_energy": 81.661, "architecture_maturity": 11.924, "architecture_confidence": 63.329, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.71, "rotation_up": 82.88, "upward_expansion": 95.24, "deceleration": 39.1, "rotation_down": 9.43, "downward_expansion": 17.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.378947, 54.505754, 53.622134, 53.215506 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 56.9271, "trend_reference": 53.002021, "distance_from_trend": 0.074055, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 41.429222, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.374081, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.011645, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.041382, "excess_performance": -0.146072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074055, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033073, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.374081, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031838, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020116, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073723, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.041382, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.90185, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11053, "relative_activity": 0.098564, "balance": 0.90185, "dry_up": 0.072868, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027563, "annualized_volatility": 0.213018, "from_high_reference": -0.001279, "from_low_reference": 0.262487 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.002021, "fair_value_reference": 41.429222, "structural_low": 47.836825, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.00202, "positive_rate": 0.516129, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.008923, "regime_survival": 0.774194, "best_return": 0.062255, "worst_return": -0.058738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.013484, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.083463, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.130901, "worst_return": -0.063917, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.054185, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.10352, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.136399, "worst_return": -0.043102, "sufficient": true }, { 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54.1156, "volume": 6460, "typical_volume": 117360.55, "trend": 52.67141, "fair_value": 41.108596, "relative_strength": -1.637607, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.485918, "energy": 58.366678, "activity_lines": [ 53.93444, 53.459483, 52.917494, 52.7782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.3435, "volume": 11071, "typical_volume": 113039.15, "trend": 52.820955, "fair_value": 41.263164, "relative_strength": 0.074015, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.634228, "energy": 67.821507, "activity_lines": [ 54.484273, 53.865057, 53.205965, 52.950593 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 56.9271, "volume": 11053, "typical_volume": 112140.45, "trend": 53.002021, "fair_value": 41.429222, "relative_strength": -2.011645, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.771037, "energy": 81.661212, "activity_lines": [ 55.378947, 54.505754, 53.622134, 53.215506 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }