{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f7902c2-af1e-458e-998f-f772027e89c9", "symbol": "HUTS", "name": "Hamilton Enhanced Utilities ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.396, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -1.503, "architecture_energy": 3.691, "architecture_maturity": 49.769, "architecture_confidence": 70.701, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.8, "rotation_up": 21.69, "upward_expansion": 49.41, "deceleration": 81.98, "rotation_down": 26.88, "downward_expansion": 25.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.686993, 15.785357, 15.789312, 15.649415 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.17, "trend_reference": 15.360135, "distance_from_trend": -0.012378, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.115503, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.252115, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.31067, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.056077, "excess_performance": -0.064344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.012378, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051033, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.252115, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058693, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.073107, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056077, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.416364, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41900, "relative_activity": 0.980232, "balance": 1.416364, "dry_up": 1.346356, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028845, "annualized_volatility": 0.154619, "from_high_reference": -0.07461, "from_low_reference": 0.195267 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.360135, "fair_value_reference": 12.115503, "structural_low": 14.295799, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.031729, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.006663, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.102677, "worst_return": -0.068632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.01515, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.000264, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.140744, "worst_return": -0.043272, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.171854, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.093156, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.208584, "worst_return": -0.008705, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002023, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032786, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061396, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023678, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.134253, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.062961, "active": false }, { 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11.973536, "relative_strength": -2.257617, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.88855, "energy": 23.252609, "activity_lines": [ 15.773693, 15.910425, 15.723391, 15.489082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.024235, "volume": 43500, "typical_volume": 43940.0, "trend": 15.139165, "fair_value": 12.007602, "relative_strength": 0.751903, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.308857, "energy": 24.769474, "activity_lines": [ 15.813154, 15.932662, 15.766273, 15.552059 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.213341, "volume": 42600, "typical_volume": 42005.0, "trend": 15.232008, "fair_value": 12.045494, "relative_strength": 1.64124, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.735927, "energy": 27.428611, "activity_lines": [ 15.932941, 15.976255, 15.823932, 15.621361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.8, "volume": 102200, "typical_volume": 44525.0, "trend": 15.303155, "fair_value": 12.082989, "relative_strength": -0.466975, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.171334, "energy": 24.800998, "activity_lines": [ 15.905034, 15.933636, 15.837505, 15.658005 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.17, "volume": 41900, "typical_volume": 42745.0, "trend": 15.360135, "fair_value": 12.115503, "relative_strength": -7.31067, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.503217, "energy": 3.691182, "activity_lines": [ 15.686993, 15.785357, 15.789312, 15.649415 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }