{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f793f43-594c-48ae-ad3e-c0799167e37b", "symbol": "CHOLAFIN", "name": "Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 92.172, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.938, "architecture_energy": 56.897, "architecture_maturity": 15.093, "architecture_confidence": 80.311, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.84, "rotation_up": 68.77, "upward_expansion": 83.98, "deceleration": 53.57, "rotation_down": 16.0, "downward_expansion": 8.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 1821.284871, 1789.73178, 1705.716786, 1665.410794 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1866.199951, "trend_reference": 1638.943013, "distance_from_trend": 0.138661, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1428.693185, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306229, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.878429, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.071174, "excess_performance": 0.114883, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.138661, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005968, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306229, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092028, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.148784, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066769, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071174, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.088733, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8766336, "relative_activity": 1.244373, "balance": 1.088733, "dry_up": 1.152972, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055971, "annualized_volatility": 0.372363, "from_high_reference": -0.0442, "from_low_reference": 0.436201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1638.943013, "fair_value_reference": 1428.693185, "structural_low": 1299.400024, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.012847, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.011093, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.224252, "worst_return": -0.173255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.020601, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.023206, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.418296, "worst_return": -0.171261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.000431, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.023978, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.533064, "worst_return": 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false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034524, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066157, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020116, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093897, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.052146, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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1775.781657, 1729.344793, 1658.198291, 1636.341297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1849.900024, "volume": 12454932, "typical_volume": 7120648.65, "trend": 1633.930241, "fair_value": 1423.392861, "relative_strength": 15.299815, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.643711, "energy": 66.162109, "activity_lines": [ 1797.530159, 1760.875566, 1681.981114, 1650.425651 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1866.199951, "volume": 8766336, "typical_volume": 7044779.9, "trend": 1638.943013, "fair_value": 1428.693185, "relative_strength": 14.878429, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.938227, "energy": 56.897429, "activity_lines": [ 1821.284871, 1789.73178, 1705.716786, 1665.410794 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }