{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f796dbe-4df0-4f6c-8efa-cfcd9a3714d1", "symbol": "UPW", "name": "PROSHARES TRUST PSHS ULTRA UTIL", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 71.815, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.7, "architecture_energy": 41.838, "architecture_maturity": 18.794, "architecture_confidence": 95.527, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.56, "rotation_up": 19.85, "upward_expansion": 11.56, "deceleration": 36.84, "rotation_down": 54.13, "downward_expansion": 77.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.06646, 23.434392, 23.557066, 23.821339 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.88, "trend_reference": 23.910559, "distance_from_trend": -0.084923, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.581407, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.177521, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.505451, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011186, "excess_performance": -0.136811, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.084923, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014868, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.177521, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124893, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.165055, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078797, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011186, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.484074, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 115743, "relative_activity": 1.284285, "balance": 0.484074, "dry_up": 1.000444, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075391, "annualized_volatility": 0.385422, "from_high_reference": -0.181277, "from_low_reference": 0.092262 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.910559, "fair_value_reference": 18.581407, "structural_low": 21.26, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.017052, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.008083, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.155466, "worst_return": -0.101971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.007279, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.023096, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.20375, "worst_return": -0.174582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.082022, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.06085, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.199781, "worst_return": -0.14383, 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.7702, "volume": 80466, "typical_volume": 92775.95, "trend": 23.872106, "fair_value": 18.464867, "relative_strength": -1.75094, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.816637, "energy": 22.57312, "activity_lines": [ 24.227947, 23.895594, 23.878382, 24.020897 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.7943, "volume": 88276, "typical_volume": 89711.35, "trend": 23.895329, "fair_value": 18.526702, "relative_strength": -10.304425, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.061175, "energy": 9.27566, "activity_lines": [ 23.733487, 23.739101, 23.754229, 23.951361 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.88, "volume": 115743, "typical_volume": 90122.5, "trend": 23.910559, "fair_value": 18.581407, "relative_strength": -16.505451, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.699534, "energy": 41.837694, "activity_lines": [ 23.06646, 23.434392, 23.557066, 23.821339 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }