{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f79cf28-9fd8-4228-ac83-d046fdf11fd4", "symbol": "00706L", "name": "Yuanta S&P Japanese Yen 2x Leverage ER Futures ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 54.157, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.417, "architecture_energy": 39.183, "architecture_maturity": 71.342, "architecture_confidence": 68.462, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.52, "rotation_up": 28.89, "upward_expansion": 20.24, "deceleration": 64.04, "rotation_down": 44.34, "downward_expansion": 70.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.678666, 18.641272, 18.853048, 19.086989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.219999, "trend_reference": 19.442333, "distance_from_trend": -0.011436, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.166859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.890456, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.096527, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.087803, "excess_performance": -0.467114, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011436, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037397, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.890456, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24164, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160965, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155549, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087803, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.765221, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15321984, "relative_activity": 2.111425, "balance": 0.765221, "dry_up": 1.476522, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01709, "annualized_volatility": 0.147421, "from_high_reference": -0.135791, "from_low_reference": 2.500911 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.442333, "fair_value_reference": 10.166859, "structural_low": 18.030001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.02196, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": -0.021182, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 2.755932, "worst_return": -0.117323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.073585, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.023768, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 2.495741, "worst_return": -0.208731, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.031724, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.076455, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 2.480409, "worst_return": -0.324011, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 18.766001, 18.956728, 19.175715, 19.440538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.389999, "volume": 4986600, "typical_volume": 7341206.85, "trend": 19.720333, "fair_value": 9.910513, "relative_strength": -19.649336, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.398306, "energy": 90.282298, "activity_lines": [ 18.617333, 18.827091, 19.075476, 19.348753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.35, "volume": 5825586, "typical_volume": 7282724.05, "trend": 19.637333, "fair_value": 9.975577, "relative_strength": -15.314782, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.369968, "energy": 89.350014, "activity_lines": [ 18.498667, 18.702182, 18.98481, 19.260344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.049999, "volume": 5504000, "typical_volume": 7049794.9, "trend": 19.547, "fair_value": 10.034551, "relative_strength": -19.071317, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.550056, "energy": 91.699997, "activity_lines": [ 18.322, 18.550727, 18.875476, 19.157936 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.709999, "volume": 16207165, "typical_volume": 7094306.0, "trend": 19.482667, "fair_value": 10.099679, "relative_strength": -15.633572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.430438, "energy": 63.051574, "activity_lines": [ 18.418666, 18.544363, 18.837952, 19.103936 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.219999, "volume": 15321984, "typical_volume": 7256703.35, "trend": 19.442333, "fair_value": 10.166859, "relative_strength": -16.096527, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.417451, "energy": 39.182596, "activity_lines": [ 18.678666, 18.641272, 18.853048, 19.086989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }