{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f7a8b1b-d20c-4e84-9467-3a92a892401e", "symbol": "000678", "name": "Xiangyang Automobile Bearing Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.726, "architecture_energy": 58.014, "architecture_maturity": 73.358, "architecture_confidence": 95.7, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.56, "rotation_up": 20.92, "upward_expansion": 9.89, "deceleration": 55.29, "rotation_down": 57.79, "downward_expansion": 80.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.339333, 8.606182, 9.81481, 10.598559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.82, "trend_reference": 11.728667, "distance_from_trend": -0.247996, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.317244, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.053368, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.29011, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.378436, "excess_performance": -0.385835, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.247996, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1264, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.053368, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.549795, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.342901, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094501, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.378436, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.235837, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 67211892, "relative_activity": 0.899745, "balance": 0.235837, "dry_up": 0.739763, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.1412, "annualized_volatility": 0.59058, "from_high_reference": -0.496, "from_low_reference": 0.204918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.728667, "fair_value_reference": 9.317244, "structural_low": 7.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.036895, "positive_rate": 0.652174, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": 0.037783, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.310345, "worst_return": -0.189349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.07657, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.007263, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.603723, "worst_return": -0.21174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.04031, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.206006, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.135632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.493665, "energy": 82.528529, "activity_lines": [ 8.181333, 8.925273, 10.258238, 11.037398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.45, "volume": 46127640, "typical_volume": 73029835.8, "trend": 11.935667, "fair_value": 9.310769, "relative_strength": -34.741682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.013127, "energy": 65.033929, "activity_lines": [ 8.202, 8.696364, 10.009619, 10.79957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.82, "volume": 67211892, "typical_volume": 74701047.0, "trend": 11.728667, "fair_value": 9.317244, "relative_strength": -34.29011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.725685, "energy": 58.014126, "activity_lines": [ 8.339333, 8.606182, 9.81481, 10.598559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }