{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "6f7bc34b-03c5-4731-a142-e887c0b029f6",
    "symbol": "ZJPN",
    "name": "BMO Japan Index ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 73.222,
    "architecture_energy": 41.825,
    "architecture_maturity": 56.755,
    "architecture_confidence": 70.28,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 22.62,
        "rotation_up": 44.76,
        "upward_expansion": 74.79,
        "deceleration": 88.55,
        "rotation_down": 28.49,
        "downward_expansion": 10.45
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        49.935333,
        49.912028,
        49.03402,
        48.114257
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 51.299999,
    "trend_reference": 47.101314,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.089142,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 37.472631,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.368999,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 1.600267,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.107324,
    "excess_performance": -0.013097,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.089142,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.050696,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.368999,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040713,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016003,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.009716,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.107324,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.994362,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 9800,
      "relative_activity": 0.373903,
      "balance": 0.994362,
      "dry_up": 1.40309,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.032517,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.224761,
      "from_high_reference": -0.003713,
      "from_low_reference": 0.289456
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 47.101314,
      "fair_value_reference": 37.472631,
      "structural_low": 42.090905,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.040407,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.009441,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.106164,
        "worst_return": -0.024883,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.043384,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.000625,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.207427,
        "worst_return": -0.005723,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.200516,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.023628,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.220895,
        "worst_return": 0.030204,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.177254,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.071162,
        "regime_survival": 1.0,
        "best_return": 0.252798,
        "worst_return": 0.101709,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-10-13",
        "end": "2023-11-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.028099,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-01",
        "end": "2024-04-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.087695,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-04-26",
        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.069669,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.061844,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.094201,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.032729,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.047692,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.075515,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-23",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.157833,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.05264,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.038758,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
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        "typical_volume": 37336.7,
        "trend": 43.979644,
        "fair_value": 35.551467,
        "relative_strength": -4.261724,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 30.294047,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "relative_strength": -3.573608,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 37522.35,
        "trend": 44.310838,
        "fair_value": 35.784936,
        "relative_strength": 0.628689,
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        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
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        "direction": 65.751977,
        "energy": 53.131329,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 39503.7,
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        "fair_value": 35.903454,
        "relative_strength": 0.896712,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 48.740467,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 39150.0,
        "trend": 44.645431,
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        "relative_strength": 0.000879,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.489762,
        "energy": 57.293336,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 48.410091,
        "volume": 18800,
        "typical_volume": 39270.0,
        "trend": 44.828663,
        "fair_value": 36.148688,
        "relative_strength": 0.601184,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.467264,
        "energy": 67.610842,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 47.682198,
        "volume": 9200,
        "typical_volume": 38290.0,
        "trend": 44.983472,
        "fair_value": 36.266947,
        "relative_strength": 0.135633,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.43518,
        "energy": 64.262855,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 48.779026,
        "volume": 600,
        "typical_volume": 36685.0,
        "trend": 45.16103,
        "fair_value": 36.391992,
        "relative_strength": 0.885013,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.313894,
        "energy": 70.340981,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 2500,
        "typical_volume": 35885.0,
        "trend": 45.463458,
        "fair_value": 36.538217,
        "relative_strength": 5.394662,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 86.17791,
        "energy": 83.153,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 49.826004,
        "volume": 4700,
        "typical_volume": 34785.0,
        "trend": 45.69655,
        "fair_value": 36.672526,
        "relative_strength": 2.81811,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.985362,
        "energy": 77.338378,
        "activity_lines": [
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          46.706534
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 50.939999,
        "volume": 1400,
        "typical_volume": 33555.0,
        "trend": 45.971434,
        "fair_value": 36.814468,
        "relative_strength": 4.245929,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.334814,
        "energy": 86.589767,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 50.639999,
        "volume": 38000,
        "typical_volume": 33440.0,
        "trend": 46.238315,
        "fair_value": 36.953011,
        "relative_strength": 3.351902,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.359834,
        "energy": 84.02754,
        "activity_lines": [
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          47.346019
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 48.139999,
        "volume": 45000,
        "typical_volume": 30295.0,
        "trend": 46.425191,
        "fair_value": 37.075467,
        "relative_strength": -1.671764,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.705415,
        "energy": 50.307028,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.786295,
          49.499058,
          48.251204,
          47.468708
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 49.029999,
        "volume": 18100,
        "typical_volume": 27970.0,
        "trend": 46.645062,
        "fair_value": 37.199325,
        "relative_strength": -0.135304,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.287062,
        "energy": 39.013821,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.422399,
          49.495328,
          48.447099,
          47.63676
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 49.630001,
        "volume": 74200,
        "typical_volume": 27700.0,
        "trend": 46.883737,
        "fair_value": 37.330164,
        "relative_strength": 1.483381,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.231215,
        "energy": 30.875347,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.394,
          49.569114,
          48.675592,
          47.829337
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 51.299999,
        "volume": 9800,
        "typical_volume": 26210.0,
        "trend": 47.101314,
        "fair_value": 37.472631,
        "relative_strength": 1.600267,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.221953,
        "energy": 41.825198,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.935333,
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          49.03402,
          48.114257
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}