{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f7df445-4e0a-4029-b070-fdac85e6a2be", "symbol": "300296", "name": "Leyard Optoelectronic Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.49, "architecture_energy": 72.108, "architecture_maturity": 27.035, "architecture_confidence": 94.059, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.66, "rotation_up": 17.64, "upward_expansion": 16.31, "deceleration": 40.81, "rotation_down": 64.86, "downward_expansion": 89.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.285333, 5.470727, 5.924353, 6.319396 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.45, "trend_reference": 6.71128, "distance_from_trend": -0.187934, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.882733, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.07356, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.051385, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.211106, "excess_performance": -0.218506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.187934, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026329, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.07356, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19068, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210514, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018625, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.211106, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.808101, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 247016152, "relative_activity": 0.586965, "balance": 0.808101, "dry_up": 0.636239, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097581, "annualized_volatility": 0.545664, "from_high_reference": -0.426333, "from_low_reference": 0.10101 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.71128, "fair_value_reference": 5.882733, "structural_low": 4.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.018063, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.013902, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.28133, "worst_return": -0.239859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.014271, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037891, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.02046, "worst_return": -0.278446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.048599, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.109199, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.053708, "worst_return": -0.257334, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-29.367779, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.551894, "energy": 82.990635, "activity_lines": [ 5.697333, 6.067128, 6.476175, 6.716315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.19, "volume": 317323728, "typical_volume": 605735226.05, "trend": 6.798261, "fair_value": 5.901612, "relative_strength": -23.099345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.898437, "energy": 86.5846, "activity_lines": [ 5.451333, 5.869175, 6.308759, 6.61028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.98, "volume": 267586084, "typical_volume": 530082636.5, "trend": 6.763217, "fair_value": 5.893872, "relative_strength": -25.995686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.239692, "energy": 90.64896, "activity_lines": [ 5.22, 5.658909, 6.136801, 6.492973 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.36, "volume": 239082971, "typical_volume": 465069283.65, "trend": 6.737227, "fair_value": 5.887153, "relative_strength": -18.698759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.999465, "energy": 84.901327, "activity_lines": [ 5.231333, 5.545091, 6.017442, 6.402443 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.45, "volume": 247016152, "typical_volume": 420836089.25, "trend": 6.71128, "fair_value": 5.882733, "relative_strength": -21.051385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.490336, "energy": 72.107589, "activity_lines": [ 5.285333, 5.470727, 5.924353, 6.319396 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }