{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f7fb23a-f20c-431f-8eee-9c1db98798f2", "symbol": "CRSU", "name": "Caisse R\u00e9gionale de Cr\u00e9dit Agricole Mutuel Sud Rh\u00f4ne Alpes", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.301, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 10.812, "architecture_energy": 19.228, "architecture_maturity": 66.809, "architecture_confidence": 92.93, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.1, "rotation_up": 19.5, "upward_expansion": 48.44, "deceleration": 85.11, "rotation_down": 39.31, "downward_expansion": 28.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 221.633332, 225.647272, 227.415152, 220.989457 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 222.699997, "trend_reference": 212.5788, "distance_from_trend": 0.047612, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 148.467324, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.499993, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.737624, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.14261, "excess_performance": 0.089299, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047612, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064077, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.499993, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068671, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007376, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143286, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.14261, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.81493, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2103, "relative_activity": 1.51573, "balance": 0.81493, "dry_up": 1.066525, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050596, "annualized_volatility": 0.247944, "from_high_reference": -0.143462, "from_low_reference": 0.276404 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 212.5788, "fair_value_reference": 148.467324, "structural_low": 187.145798, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.020033, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.016639, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.10516, "worst_return": -0.113064, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000747, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006429, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.287994, "worst_return": -0.103226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.103081, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.116611, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.6903, "worst_return": -0.123646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079316, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022269, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061233, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075812, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.308725, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-30", 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53.103842, "activity_lines": [ 238.34, 239.135265, 225.98878, 217.515444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 220.0, "volume": 1973, "typical_volume": 1435.1, "trend": 208.59992, "fair_value": 145.724742, "relative_strength": 5.51857, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.685631, "energy": 30.431147, "activity_lines": [ 230.26, 236.369057, 226.464424, 218.315718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 216.0, "volume": 858, "typical_volume": 1423.45, "trend": 209.626707, "fair_value": 146.366537, "relative_strength": 3.074664, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.892773, "energy": 34.629659, "activity_lines": [ 223.51, 232.685836, 226.439799, 218.793143 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 215.0, "volume": 1164, "typical_volume": 1331.95, "trend": 210.55518, "fair_value": 146.993285, "relative_strength": 1.816329, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.673378, "energy": 31.583599, "activity_lines": [ 218.76, 228.854423, 226.219667, 219.139807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 228.5, "volume": 1794, "typical_volume": 1348.15, "trend": 211.975242, "fair_value": 147.726725, "relative_strength": 6.077436, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.064779, "energy": 28.937104, "activity_lines": [ 220.846666, 227.68, 227.175817, 220.297537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 222.699997, "volume": 2103, "typical_volume": 1387.45, "trend": 212.5788, "fair_value": 148.467324, "relative_strength": 0.737624, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.812246, "energy": 19.228476, "activity_lines": [ 221.633332, 225.647272, 227.415152, 220.989457 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }