{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f83dfe3-dde7-48c0-92b9-8af20dd1ce25", "symbol": "1732", "name": "Mao Bao Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.365, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 9.478, "architecture_energy": 8.995, "architecture_maturity": 19.191, "architecture_confidence": 50.63, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.42, "rotation_up": 38.45, "upward_expansion": 43.9, "deceleration": 38.62, "rotation_down": 33.17, "downward_expansion": 13.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.77, 26.75, 26.578333, 26.536989 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 26.299999, "trend_reference": 26.655, "distance_from_trend": -0.013318, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.456736, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.042129, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.78017, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.050542, "excess_performance": -0.491914, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013318, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022791, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.042129, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006747, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.327802, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042679, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.050542, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.539136, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1105023, "relative_activity": 0.899392, "balance": 1.539136, "dry_up": 1.907261, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053671, "annualized_volatility": 0.171762, "from_high_reference": -0.212575, "from_low_reference": 0.043651 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.655, "fair_value_reference": 27.456736, "structural_low": 25.200001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.00435, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.022514, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.139493, "worst_return": -0.199637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.001092, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.015335, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.159127, "worst_return": -0.183471, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.089474, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.072579, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.57686, "worst_return": -0.174151, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084211, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.419501, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086058, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125954, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005163, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003509, "active": false }, { 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27.444609, "relative_strength": -31.263465, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.097854, "energy": 9.128559, "activity_lines": [ 26.553333, 26.479091, 26.350952, 26.490215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.0, "volume": 5304051, "typical_volume": 1134281.75, "trend": 26.805, "fair_value": 27.454293, "relative_strength": -27.809769, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.347589, "energy": 27.728947, "activity_lines": [ 27.06, 26.764545, 26.513571, 26.565914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.299999, "volume": 1822000, "typical_volume": 1194077.35, "trend": 26.736667, "fair_value": 27.453709, "relative_strength": -30.461577, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.500009, "energy": 11.272852, "activity_lines": [ 26.886666, 26.707272, 26.508333, 26.533333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.200001, "volume": 1142221, "typical_volume": 1218885.75, "trend": 26.706667, "fair_value": 27.45732, "relative_strength": -29.00015, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.783117, "energy": 19.183111, "activity_lines": [ 26.993333, 26.818182, 26.589048, 26.563226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 26.299999, "volume": 1105023, "typical_volume": 1228633.15, "trend": 26.655, "fair_value": 27.456736, "relative_strength": -32.78017, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.478188, "energy": 8.994519, "activity_lines": [ 26.77, 26.75, 26.578333, 26.536989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }