{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f851d52-8fb9-4bed-9141-9d8af960d8b7", "symbol": "SFHG", "name": "Samfine Creation Holdings Group Limited", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.716, "architecture_energy": 19.0, "architecture_maturity": 25.826, "architecture_confidence": 63.804, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.25, "rotation_up": 25.17, "upward_expansion": 16.57, "deceleration": 34.07, "rotation_down": 35.09, "downward_expansion": 55.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.455413, 2.456004, 2.466372, 2.50519 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.31, "trend_reference": 2.645477, "distance_from_trend": -0.126811, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.496485, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.728123, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.827106, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.24878, "excess_performance": -0.436234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.126811, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090448, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.728123, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002098, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.318271, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051573, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.24878, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.522133, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31697, "relative_activity": 0.497586, "balance": 0.522133, "dry_up": 0.362087, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159607, "annualized_volatility": 0.468065, "from_high_reference": -0.533333, "from_low_reference": 0.44375 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.645477, "fair_value_reference": 8.496485, "structural_low": 1.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.077869, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072289, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-18", "close": 44.85, "volume": 3053648, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 48.0, "volume": 1392545, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, 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26268, "typical_volume": 70154.35, "trend": 2.815017, "fair_value": 8.694003, "relative_strength": -22.543617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.916621, "energy": 12.476436, "activity_lines": [ 2.486667, 2.474909, 2.474548, 2.565778 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.49, "volume": 11279, "typical_volume": 66265.7, "trend": 2.740417, "fair_value": 8.627293, "relative_strength": -24.433193, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.426886, "energy": 10.787417, "activity_lines": [ 2.497333, 2.477273, 2.476095, 2.54481 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.5178, "volume": 23018, "typical_volume": 64277.65, "trend": 2.701493, "fair_value": 8.562298, "relative_strength": -22.862024, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.743101, "energy": 9.585973, "activity_lines": [ 2.515267, 2.485418, 2.4811, 2.530447 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.31, "volume": 31697, "typical_volume": 63701.6, "trend": 2.645477, "fair_value": 8.496485, "relative_strength": -31.827106, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.716311, "energy": 19.00027, "activity_lines": [ 2.455413, 2.456004, 2.466372, 2.50519 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }