{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f882520-8089-4375-8960-3b07028d9ea2", "symbol": "ALCWE", "name": "Charwood Energy SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.217, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.833, "architecture_energy": 51.485, "architecture_maturity": 8.507, "architecture_confidence": 58.835, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.42, "rotation_up": 19.49, "upward_expansion": 19.09, "deceleration": 44.51, "rotation_down": 64.13, "downward_expansion": 60.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.36, 3.414, 3.53581, 3.560602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.4, "trend_reference": 3.51, "distance_from_trend": -0.031339, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.425192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.007355, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.130155, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.156463, "excess_performance": 0.103151, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031339, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054793, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.007355, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080169, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031302, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.234384, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.156463, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.730865, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1707, "relative_activity": 0.337162, "balance": 0.730865, "dry_up": 0.253513, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061086, "annualized_volatility": 0.378, "from_high_reference": -0.237668, "from_low_reference": 0.317829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.51, "fair_value_reference": 3.425192, "structural_low": 2.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.039267, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.143577, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.05988, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022099, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", 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"2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.12987, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015957, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107527, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017964, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.0, "volume": 2496, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 4.99, "volume": 1997, 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"close": 3.52, "volume": 249, "typical_volume": 11076.25, "trend": 3.399667, "fair_value": 3.499487, "relative_strength": 4.98068, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.041093, "energy": 10.973128, "activity_lines": [ 3.590667, 3.657636, 3.695381, 3.583634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 3.44, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 10940.2, "trend": 3.416333, "fair_value": 3.485256, "relative_strength": 1.038577, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.176274, "energy": 9.88082, "activity_lines": [ 3.534667, 3.601273, 3.676571, 3.586237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 3.5, "volume": 1956, "typical_volume": 10868.9, "trend": 3.437667, "fair_value": 3.472436, "relative_strength": 4.637541, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.724436, "energy": 16.700597, "activity_lines": [ 3.517333, 3.569455, 3.661762, 3.591634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.32, "volume": 801, "typical_volume": 8028.15, "trend": 3.453667, "fair_value": 3.459231, "relative_strength": -0.860094, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.021614, "energy": 38.038941, "activity_lines": [ 3.44, 3.514, 3.627333, 3.584043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.34, "volume": 1094, "typical_volume": 7252.9, "trend": 3.471667, "fair_value": 3.447692, "relative_strength": -0.786208, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.05807, "energy": 49.136627, "activity_lines": [ 3.392, 3.472, 3.594714, 3.57671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.31, "volume": 1532, "typical_volume": 5841.05, "trend": 3.488, "fair_value": 3.43609, "relative_strength": -3.347277, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -41.713238, "energy": 58.084442, "activity_lines": [ 3.354, 3.431273, 3.559905, 3.56628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.4, "volume": 1707, "typical_volume": 5062.85, "trend": 3.51, "fair_value": 3.425192, "relative_strength": -3.130155, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.833051, "energy": 51.485136, "activity_lines": [ 3.36, 3.414, 3.53581, 3.560602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }