{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f88b958-ada6-429f-8075-e7bd5858e090", "symbol": "PAAS", "name": "Pan American Silver Corp.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.694, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.631, "architecture_energy": 32.05, "architecture_maturity": 32.174, "architecture_confidence": 64.865, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.42, "rotation_up": 24.57, "upward_expansion": 17.51, "deceleration": 60.59, "rotation_down": 46.46, "downward_expansion": 67.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.856, 45.653636, 48.525798, 50.586229 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 51.22, "trend_reference": 53.241981, "distance_from_trend": -0.037977, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.19874, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.754185, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.212783, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.066611, "excess_performance": -0.192236, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037977, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000711, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.754185, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.479458, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042128, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.287932, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.066611, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.755427, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20848900, "relative_activity": 0.905124, "balance": 0.755427, "dry_up": 0.806919, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112214, "annualized_volatility": 0.638435, "from_high_reference": -0.263717, "from_low_reference": 0.690987 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.241981, "fair_value_reference": 29.19874, "structural_low": 40.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.013137, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.006001, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.267534, "worst_return": -0.213066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.042083, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.050347, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.576316, "worst_return": -0.201384, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.049612, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.009899, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.486859, "worst_return": -0.204974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024579, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.095004, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.066366, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.20174, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.218759, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", 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"typical_volume": 26500772.25, "trend": 53.586699, "fair_value": 28.783767, "relative_strength": -13.094504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.552405, "energy": 62.150846, "activity_lines": [ 43.751333, 45.646182, 49.245542, 51.398447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.11, "volume": 16909224, "typical_volume": 25468236.5, "trend": 53.33268, "fair_value": 28.966532, "relative_strength": -16.170519, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.552819, "energy": 57.356757, "activity_lines": [ 43.374, 44.814182, 48.468957, 50.722531 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 51.22, "volume": 20848900, "typical_volume": 23034291.05, "trend": 53.241981, "fair_value": 29.19874, "relative_strength": -4.212783, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.630549, "energy": 32.049559, "activity_lines": [ 45.856, 45.653636, 48.525798, 50.586229 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }