{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f89963f-396d-40d9-bd7b-c4fc06564717", "symbol": "XWVS", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Value ESG UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.987, "architecture_energy": 64.869, "architecture_maturity": 66.735, "architecture_confidence": 62.124, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.2, "rotation_up": 46.35, "upward_expansion": 77.95, "deceleration": 76.96, "rotation_down": 29.41, "downward_expansion": 11.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.351333, 45.17, 44.389357, 43.204274 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 46.717499, "trend_reference": 41.797, "distance_from_trend": 0.117724, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.313853, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.445742, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.179724, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.179139, "excess_performance": 0.127904, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.117724, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063411, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.445742, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.082372, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.091797, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011914, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.179139, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.521726, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9765, "relative_activity": 1.180082, "balance": 5.521726, "dry_up": 1.248059, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021585, "annualized_volatility": 0.149998, "from_high_reference": -0.023484, "from_low_reference": 0.420848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.797, "fair_value_reference": 32.313853, "structural_low": 36.82, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.042813, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.006157, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.094986, "worst_return": -0.07814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.090061, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.032371, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.215796, "worst_return": -0.072408, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.137536, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.060123, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.214885, "worst_return": 0.060188, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.304015, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.076568, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.304015, "worst_return": 0.304015, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029678, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014072, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01777, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.113951, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045781, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.133694, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023086, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.017145, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082413, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.098358, "active": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.196912, "energy": 56.350002, "activity_lines": [ 44.746001, 44.825364, 43.495322, 42.405903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.807499, "volume": 18291, "typical_volume": 8075.35, "trend": 41.326667, "fair_value": 32.052603, "relative_strength": 6.987768, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.025278, "energy": 51.820994, "activity_lines": [ 44.686667, 44.849137, 43.759976, 42.644989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.825001, "volume": 8155, "typical_volume": 8117.7, "trend": 41.546917, "fair_value": 32.176433, "relative_strength": 5.422967, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.924033, "energy": 46.180601, "activity_lines": [ 44.693, 44.844955, 43.999953, 42.870688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.717499, "volume": 9765, "typical_volume": 8274.85, "trend": 41.797, "fair_value": 32.313853, "relative_strength": 9.179724, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.986529, "energy": 64.869172, "activity_lines": [ 45.351333, 45.17, 44.389357, 43.204274 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }