{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f912a95-0c0b-445c-8543-7966a564e549", "symbol": "USVE", "name": "Amundi PEA MSCI USA Value Advanced UCITS ETF - Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 94.844, "architecture_energy": 76.177, "architecture_maturity": 50.684, "architecture_confidence": 86.91, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.14, "rotation_up": 71.47, "upward_expansion": 90.0, "deceleration": 56.26, "rotation_down": 25.68, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.6116, 14.466709, 14.185005, 13.829191 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 15.008, "trend_reference": 13.428467, "distance_from_trend": 0.117626, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.981148, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.252635, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.036186, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.166757, "excess_performance": 0.113446, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.117626, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040781, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.252635, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093807, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.080362, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014748, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.166757, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.465453, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11250, "relative_activity": 1.307949, "balance": 8.465453, "dry_up": 1.08801, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016827, "annualized_volatility": 0.115747, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.308457 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.428467, "fair_value_reference": 11.981148, "structural_low": 11.993, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.015629, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.002127, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.039335, "worst_return": -0.008743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.00541, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012582, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.052512, "worst_return": -0.041692, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.00863, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.023373, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.00863, "worst_return": 0.00863, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"close": 14.286, "volume": 1636, "typical_volume": 7798.0, "trend": 13.173433, "fair_value": 11.873986, "relative_strength": 6.959588, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.492889, "energy": 67.145599, "activity_lines": [ 14.213667, 14.150655, 13.680752, 13.423099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.44, "volume": 3976, "typical_volume": 7594.55, "trend": 13.224333, "fair_value": 11.895369, "relative_strength": 9.936243, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.225179, "energy": 71.34806, "activity_lines": [ 14.288133, 14.230073, 13.789129, 13.504813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.346, "volume": 4052, "typical_volume": 7744.55, "trend": 13.271467, "fair_value": 11.915622, "relative_strength": 8.856557, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.707475, "energy": 78.731493, "activity_lines": [ 14.3232, 14.269582, 13.880748, 13.577178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.454, "volume": 13655, "typical_volume": 8114.9, "trend": 13.322467, "fair_value": 11.936429, "relative_strength": 8.887906, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.651424, "energy": 83.155154, "activity_lines": [ 14.3824, 14.3146, 13.974629, 13.653471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.41, "volume": 8476, "typical_volume": 8339.35, "trend": 13.371867, "fair_value": 11.956539, "relative_strength": 6.541043, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.769468, "energy": 65.901093, "activity_lines": [ 14.404667, 14.338909, 14.055638, 13.723634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.008, "volume": 11250, "typical_volume": 8601.25, "trend": 13.428467, "fair_value": 11.981148, "relative_strength": 8.036186, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 94.843505, "energy": 76.177228, "activity_lines": [ 14.6116, 14.466709, 14.185005, 13.829191 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }