{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f914c74-ba69-4550-bb19-a45b7a7e697c", "symbol": "FPH", "name": "Five Point Holdings LLC", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.312, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 9.456, "architecture_energy": 7.984, "architecture_maturity": 21.268, "architecture_confidence": 74.608, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.73, "rotation_up": 37.65, "upward_expansion": 33.71, "deceleration": 36.86, "rotation_down": 24.74, "downward_expansion": 17.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.208667, 5.213818, 5.143524, 5.136688 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.22, "trend_reference": 5.181, "distance_from_trend": 0.007528, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.392949, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.188268, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.230535, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007605, "excess_performance": -0.133229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007528, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038478, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.188268, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009768, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.152305, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060812, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007605, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.401502, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1106660, "relative_activity": 1.326417, "balance": 1.401502, "dry_up": 1.006956, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066416, "annualized_volatility": 0.227088, "from_high_reference": -0.213855, "from_low_reference": 0.134783 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.181, "fair_value_reference": 4.392949, "structural_low": 4.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.023438, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": 0.028058, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.315789, "worst_return": -0.187919, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019544, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.061631, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.440816, "worst_return": -0.36246, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.005525, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.071099, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.716418, "worst_return": -0.548544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.395556, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.059352, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.632836, "worst_return": -0.635922, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01791, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.16, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.478149, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178082, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015094, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.032491, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.14733, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060995, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06644, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", 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"gate": "down", "direction": -4.819112, "energy": 14.097997, "activity_lines": [ 5.22, 5.178909, 5.103048, 5.136538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.23, "volume": 705015, "typical_volume": 832121.45, "trend": 5.212, "fair_value": 4.367949, "relative_strength": -11.854967, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.216121, "energy": 8.609585, "activity_lines": [ 5.220667, 5.201636, 5.117571, 5.137054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.19, "volume": 926113, "typical_volume": 830712.7, "trend": 5.203667, "fair_value": 4.38, "relative_strength": -13.126416, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.711538, "energy": 3.354039, "activity_lines": [ 5.200667, 5.207636, 5.129286, 5.135634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.22, "volume": 1106660, "typical_volume": 834323.1, "trend": 5.181, "fair_value": 4.392949, "relative_strength": -15.230535, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 9.455943, "energy": 7.983832, "activity_lines": [ 5.208667, 5.213818, 5.143524, 5.136688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }