{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f945d9b-1de2-4a3c-b7f7-fed4a89ead6c", "symbol": "GOMX", "name": "GomSpace Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.496, "architecture_energy": 82.711, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.407, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.38, "rotation_up": 9.38, "upward_expansion": 19.92, "deceleration": 37.23, "rotation_down": 80.93, "downward_expansion": 97.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.606667, 13.638545, 15.621095, 16.389054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 12.49, "trend_reference": 17.738, "distance_from_trend": -0.295862, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.293237, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.343988, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.181977, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.405238, "excess_performance": -0.466732, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.295862, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028286, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.343988, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.77621, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.33182, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.405238, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.756911, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1733446, "relative_activity": 0.724909, "balance": 0.756911, "dry_up": 0.812835, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158034, "annualized_volatility": 0.646492, "from_high_reference": -0.514951, "from_low_reference": 0.226916 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.738, "fair_value_reference": 9.293237, "structural_low": 11.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.028572, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.02117, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 1.34414, "worst_return": -0.483283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.106904, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.152115, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.643392, "worst_return": -0.562857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.125574, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.017478, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 2.384615, "worst_return": -0.649083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.213925, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091142, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.091139, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.185106, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.493355, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": 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1696089, "typical_volume": 2480272.75, "trend": 18.188, "fair_value": 9.151538, "relative_strength": -31.996958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.150366, "energy": 83.615977, "activity_lines": [ 13.499333, 14.964545, 16.453619, 17.123828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.29, "volume": 2466321, "typical_volume": 2459827.05, "trend": 17.981, "fair_value": 9.221699, "relative_strength": -33.043333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.914983, "energy": 82.970347, "activity_lines": [ 12.942, 14.197455, 16.017667, 16.743312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.49, "volume": 1733446, "typical_volume": 2391258.9, "trend": 17.738, "fair_value": 9.293237, "relative_strength": -33.181977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.495983, "energy": 82.711437, "activity_lines": [ 12.606667, 13.638545, 15.621095, 16.389054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }