{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6f99fd60-fdd9-4bbb-86bf-0a09cb70ac1c", "symbol": "002076", "name": "Cnlight Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.832, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -35.616, "architecture_energy": 61.165, "architecture_maturity": 11.099, "architecture_confidence": 65.723, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.67, "rotation_up": 16.23, "upward_expansion": 21.01, "deceleration": 43.66, "rotation_down": 69.58, "downward_expansion": 60.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.953333, 2.100182, 2.240095, 2.240301 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.04, "trend_reference": 2.238667, "distance_from_trend": -0.088743, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.217115, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.079886, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.442895, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.081081, "excess_performance": -0.088481, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.088743, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018502, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.079886, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109618, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074429, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00578, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.081081, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.099184, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 192153100, "relative_activity": 1.40656, "balance": 2.099184, "dry_up": 1.179471, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.124057, "annualized_volatility": 0.448738, "from_high_reference": -0.279152, "from_low_reference": 0.172414 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.238667, "fair_value_reference": 2.217115, "structural_low": 1.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.004026, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008598, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.275109, "worst_return": -0.084, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.031405, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.058772, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.010811, "worst_return": -0.052, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.052973, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.062546, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.145946, "worst_return": -0.04, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.082108, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.268, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183784, "worst_return": -0.348, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.413146, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051205, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.048649, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015873, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051813, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132479, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149758, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027027, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.158654, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.311538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056995, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 2.63, "volume": 384718436, "typical_volume": 100876609.05, "trend": 2.641333, "fair_value": 2.144551, "relative_strength": 8.060101, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.07998, 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"Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.542759, "energy": 14.770363, "activity_lines": [ 2.350667, 2.443455, 2.377095, 2.323871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.93, "volume": 160763300, "typical_volume": 131219709.5, "trend": 2.250333, "fair_value": 2.231026, "relative_strength": -9.699812, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.649571, "energy": 33.11866, "activity_lines": [ 2.187333, 2.345273, 2.341381, 2.302903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.79, "volume": 144951098, "typical_volume": 131657517.05, "trend": 2.242333, "fair_value": 2.22641, "relative_strength": -16.20613, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.333061, "energy": 56.047389, "activity_lines": [ 2.02, 2.228364, 2.293762, 2.273204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.93, "volume": 146652604, "typical_volume": 133431205.95, "trend": 2.237667, "fair_value": 2.222756, "relative_strength": -8.102399, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.141096, "energy": 59.099473, "activity_lines": [ 1.956667, 2.148182, 2.261143, 2.253054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.04, "volume": 192153100, "typical_volume": 136612075.55, "trend": 2.238667, "fair_value": 2.217115, "relative_strength": -7.442895, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.616418, "energy": 61.164963, "activity_lines": [ 1.953333, 2.100182, 2.240095, 2.240301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }