{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fa06eb2-d4f8-4490-8ae9-46ebe7a41cfe", "symbol": "VCIP", "name": "Vanguard Conservative Income ETF Portfolio", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.496, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.183, "architecture_energy": 24.723, "architecture_maturity": 50.954, "architecture_confidence": 72.448, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.16, "rotation_up": 27.27, "upward_expansion": 57.54, "deceleration": 87.6, "rotation_down": 31.11, "downward_expansion": 18.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.301, 27.361339, 27.297824, 27.204263 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 27.41, "trend_reference": 27.115789, "distance_from_trend": 0.01085, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.259875, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.08512, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.730674, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.014704, "excess_performance": -0.105717, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01085, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006319, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.08512, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005556, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097307, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001409, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014704, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.626047, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12400, "relative_activity": 0.531505, "balance": 0.626047, "dry_up": 0.933348, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00808, "annualized_volatility": 0.060233, "from_high_reference": -0.007962, "from_low_reference": 0.054847 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.115789, "fair_value_reference": 25.259875, "structural_low": 26.397512, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.007769, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.001337, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.024353, "worst_return": -0.006478, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.002528, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.008267, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042271, "worst_return": -0.004716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023693, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.062877, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067656, "worst_return": -0.045717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012751, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011253, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014165, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033526, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009808, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": 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27.410252, 27.250832, 27.167895 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.225, "volume": 17200, "typical_volume": 28115.0, "trend": 27.085064, "fair_value": 25.198842, "relative_strength": -8.563435, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.65353, "energy": 27.515747, "activity_lines": [ 27.34957, 27.389598, 27.263713, 27.177593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.190001, "volume": 16800, "typical_volume": 23685.0, "trend": 27.101556, "fair_value": 25.228327, "relative_strength": -7.91406, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.356944, "energy": 23.350097, "activity_lines": [ 27.277333, 27.355822, 27.271494, 27.184363 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.41, "volume": 12400, "typical_volume": 23330.0, "trend": 27.115789, "fair_value": 25.259875, "relative_strength": -9.730674, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.182905, "energy": 24.722962, "activity_lines": [ 27.301, 27.361339, 27.297824, 27.204263 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }