{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fa6f440-6e82-4b2a-82ff-9aaa42e19999", "symbol": "002590", "name": "Zhejiang VIE Science & Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.195, "architecture_energy": 63.122, "architecture_maturity": 59.369, "architecture_confidence": 85.331, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 16.42, "upward_expansion": 11.24, "deceleration": 50.42, "rotation_down": 67.15, "downward_expansion": 84.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.238, 9.589273, 10.499789, 11.198098 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.52, "trend_reference": 12.266966, "distance_from_trend": -0.223932, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.921699, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.263255, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.055464, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.346596, "excess_performance": -0.353995, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.223932, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091614, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.263255, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.237002, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.300555, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026664, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.346596, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.712862, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37450954, "relative_activity": 1.086748, "balance": 0.712862, "dry_up": 1.008502, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099913, "annualized_volatility": 0.363879, "from_high_reference": -0.427735, "from_low_reference": 0.12 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.266966, "fair_value_reference": 12.921699, "structural_low": 8.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.109125, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.02736, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.29562, "worst_return": -0.178735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.26255, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.02255, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.4813, "worst_return": -0.181503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.237601, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.098566, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.377916, "worst_return": -0.1753, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 8.7, "volume": 39947908, "typical_volume": 34476810.75, "trend": 12.626504, "fair_value": 12.962805, "relative_strength": -35.070257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.831203, "energy": 88.194382, "activity_lines": [ 9.248, 9.943477, 10.875246, 11.598274 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.35, "volume": 27799242, "typical_volume": 34068580.45, "trend": 12.446219, "fair_value": 12.932929, "relative_strength": -28.429693, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.365442, "energy": 79.976691, "activity_lines": [ 9.194667, 9.718545, 10.6695, 11.386886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.52, "volume": 37450954, "typical_volume": 34461478.9, "trend": 12.266966, "fair_value": 12.921699, "relative_strength": -30.055464, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.194853, "energy": 63.121662, "activity_lines": [ 9.238, 9.589273, 10.499789, 11.198098 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }