{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fa9b482-d4a3-4d80-943b-58047a63c866", "symbol": "TOK", "name": "Tolu Minerals Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.649, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.942, "architecture_energy": 51.772, "architecture_maturity": 11.787, "architecture_confidence": 85.038, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.62, "rotation_up": 14.05, "upward_expansion": 8.77, "deceleration": 44.33, "rotation_down": 65.74, "downward_expansion": 84.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.211667, 1.246273, 1.326714, 1.351441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.235, "trend_reference": 1.368167, "distance_from_trend": -0.097332, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.932483, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324422, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.524466, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020661, "excess_performance": -0.043044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.097332, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004159, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.324422, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.344183, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.355288, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020661, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.833976, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 254065, "relative_activity": 0.689956, "balance": 0.833976, "dry_up": 0.863752, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108689, "annualized_volatility": 0.47647, "from_high_reference": -0.264881, "from_low_reference": 0.515337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.368167, "fair_value_reference": 0.932483, "structural_low": 1.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.212121, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.167421, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17004, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026515, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-03", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.003235, "energy": 3.840653, "activity_lines": [ 1.406333, 1.425818, 1.434476, 1.41572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.26, "volume": 39478, "typical_volume": 449614.85, "trend": 1.384167, "fair_value": 0.922572, "relative_strength": -2.149318, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.768807, "energy": 31.774867, "activity_lines": [ 1.348, 1.392273, 1.419429, 1.407828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.2, "volume": 109836, "typical_volume": 438598.65, "trend": 1.383167, "fair_value": 0.924568, "relative_strength": -6.788804, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.185746, "energy": 56.10914, "activity_lines": [ 1.281, 1.352273, 1.399048, 1.395946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.185, "volume": 82086, "typical_volume": 404773.85, "trend": 1.381333, "fair_value": 0.926429, "relative_strength": -8.290126, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.545499, "energy": 64.144207, "activity_lines": [ 1.239, 1.314636, 1.378024, 1.383161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.21, "volume": 160522, "typical_volume": 393713.55, "trend": 1.380167, "fair_value": 0.92844, "relative_strength": -6.498042, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.607548, "energy": 73.665426, "activity_lines": [ 1.217667, 1.287091, 1.359857, 1.372108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.2, "volume": 775578, "typical_volume": 402860.9, "trend": 1.375167, "fair_value": 0.930352, "relative_strength": -9.801232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.256161, "energy": 70.364376, "activity_lines": [ 1.203667, 1.262273, 1.341262, 1.360484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.235, "volume": 254065, "typical_volume": 368233.75, "trend": 1.368167, "fair_value": 0.932483, "relative_strength": -10.524466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.941691, "energy": 51.771668, "activity_lines": [ 1.211667, 1.246273, 1.326714, 1.351441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }