{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6faa6b86-0e1a-4118-a425-17fd40f3e569", "symbol": "AD8", "name": "Audinate Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.999, "architecture_energy": 64.584, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.471, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.47, "rotation_up": 15.19, "upward_expansion": 12.36, "deceleration": 42.82, "rotation_down": 64.4, "downward_expansion": 83.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.958333, 2.046364, 2.141714, 2.309978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.05, "trend_reference": 2.680667, "distance_from_trend": -0.235265, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.187564, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.776872, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -45.43648, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.492574, "excess_performance": -0.55628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.235265, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210717, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.776872, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019039, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.454365, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052862, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.492574, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.872262, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1461034, "relative_activity": 0.992462, "balance": 0.872262, "dry_up": 1.053223, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114071, "annualized_volatility": 0.56961, "from_high_reference": -0.714485, "from_low_reference": 0.174785 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.680667, "fair_value_reference": 9.187564, "structural_low": 1.745, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.043279, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.05196, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.4375, "worst_return": -0.425962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.231707, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.211275, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.326087, "worst_return": -0.3379, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.201468, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.225065, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.00875, "worst_return": -0.54077, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.743838, "energy": 45.14557, "activity_lines": [ 2.158, 2.154455, 2.253643, 2.485129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.825, "volume": 1292617, "typical_volume": 1816584.5, "trend": 2.828667, "fair_value": 9.2875, "relative_strength": -51.090789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.165688, "energy": 57.587498, "activity_lines": [ 2.032333, 2.094545, 2.202238, 2.415376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.9, "volume": 1276684, "typical_volume": 1711825.05, "trend": 2.755, "fair_value": 9.238846, "relative_strength": -49.066689, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.332622, "energy": 70.007673, "activity_lines": [ 1.958667, 2.054, 2.162857, 2.355462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.05, "volume": 1461034, "typical_volume": 1472131.05, "trend": 2.680667, "fair_value": 9.187564, "relative_strength": -45.43648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.998596, "energy": 64.584278, "activity_lines": [ 1.958333, 2.046364, 2.141714, 2.309978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }