{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6faf9d5c-7b3f-41ef-ae08-9857bdf2fd0f", "symbol": "5902", "name": "Tait Marketing & Distribution Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.567, "architecture_energy": 18.646, "architecture_maturity": 92.283, "architecture_confidence": 71.411, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.35, "rotation_up": 26.07, "upward_expansion": 18.09, "deceleration": 44.79, "rotation_down": 26.01, "downward_expansion": 54.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.436667, 34.246528, 34.538062, 35.142076 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 34.950001, "trend_reference": 36.045893, "distance_from_trend": -0.030403, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.539264, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.043495, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.976292, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.084882, "excess_performance": -0.526254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.030403, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072572, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.043495, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02941, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.379763, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044539, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084882, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.780128, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70090, "relative_activity": 0.305814, "balance": 0.780128, "dry_up": 0.382971, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045226, "annualized_volatility": 0.147632, "from_high_reference": -0.26051, "from_low_reference": 0.09595 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.045893, "fair_value_reference": 36.539264, "structural_low": 31.890138, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.004932, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.018745, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.0409, "worst_return": -0.042945, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.020285, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.089642, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.294607, "worst_return": -0.070837, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.045926, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088719, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.249913, "worst_return": -0.116665, "sufficient": false }, 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"date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.299999, "volume": 44000, "typical_volume": 227937.2, "trend": 36.206466, "fair_value": 36.533535, "relative_strength": -38.000224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.202229, "energy": 26.023113, "activity_lines": [ 34.123333, 34.099373, 34.562277, 35.223138 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 34.950001, "volume": 70090, "typical_volume": 229191.7, "trend": 36.045893, "fair_value": 36.539264, "relative_strength": -37.976292, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.566507, "energy": 18.645812, "activity_lines": [ 34.436667, 34.246528, 34.538062, 35.142076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }