{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fb19c52-3b6b-46f5-864a-2a70b6d9c457", "symbol": "OBI", "name": "Ondine Biomedical Inc.", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.763, "architecture_energy": 20.586, "architecture_maturity": 62.704, "architecture_confidence": 82.008, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.65, "rotation_up": 22.21, "upward_expansion": 54.59, "deceleration": 90.7, "rotation_down": 31.39, "downward_expansion": 18.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.135833, 0.138864, 0.13819, 0.131505 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.135, "trend_reference": 0.120467, "distance_from_trend": 0.120642, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.103011, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.310537, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.96631, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.5, "excess_performance": 0.448765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.120642, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109525, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.310537, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040468, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009663, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109848, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.5, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.651807, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1526420, "relative_activity": 0.870033, "balance": 0.651807, "dry_up": 0.864873, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091179, "annualized_volatility": 0.423084, "from_high_reference": -0.27027, "from_low_reference": 0.8 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.120467, "fair_value_reference": 0.103011, "structural_low": 0.085, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.043321, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.067133, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.196078, "worst_return": -0.132075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.039216, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.103741, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.076923, "worst_return": -0.265306, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.161113, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.073623, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.564103, "worst_return": -0.241877, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.128205, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.060493, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.128205, "worst_return": 0.128205, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051282, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010417, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.153956, "energy": 41.049444, "activity_lines": [ 0.143633, 0.142809, 0.136867, 0.12804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.1375, "volume": 1283143, "typical_volume": 1747719.95, "trend": 0.11715, "fair_value": 0.103364, "relative_strength": 3.800832, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.432791, "energy": 30.54408, "activity_lines": [ 0.1412, 0.141691, 0.137693, 0.12946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.1325, "volume": 1315341, "typical_volume": 1767316.25, "trend": 0.11865, "fair_value": 0.103187, "relative_strength": -0.856463, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.412902, "energy": 18.528679, "activity_lines": [ 0.1376, 0.139891, 0.137876, 0.130451 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.135, "volume": 1526420, "typical_volume": 1754438.55, "trend": 0.120467, "fair_value": 0.103011, "relative_strength": 0.96631, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.762637, "energy": 20.585998, "activity_lines": [ 0.135833, 0.138864, 0.13819, 0.131505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }