{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fb440a8-0bf9-4be0-a3c0-f8c289b59d14", "symbol": "1A1", "name": "Wong Fong Industries Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 67.193, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 6.832, "architecture_energy": 17.533, "architecture_maturity": 48.514, "architecture_confidence": 80.537, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.21, "rotation_up": 18.97, "upward_expansion": 43.45, "deceleration": 80.8, "rotation_down": 41.97, "downward_expansion": 35.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.202733, 0.206109, 0.209807, 0.204396 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.205, "trend_reference": 0.195595, "distance_from_trend": 0.048085, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.145811, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.405933, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.048478, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.200171, "excess_performance": 0.045336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048085, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060741, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.405933, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.30466, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070485, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.306655, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.200171, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.265863, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 100300, "relative_activity": 1.33573, "balance": 1.265863, "dry_up": 1.071048, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.072045, "annualized_volatility": 0.397074, "from_high_reference": -0.184787, "from_low_reference": 0.278294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.195595, "fair_value_reference": 0.145811, "structural_low": 0.166064, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.025798, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.093751, "worst_return": -0.187502, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.036111, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.029963, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.206102, "worst_return": -0.175001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.058436, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.008258, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.200171, "worst_return": -0.125004, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053031, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068695, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03947, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.229346, "active": 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"trend": 0.19214, "fair_value": 0.143773, "relative_strength": 3.269935, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.40739, "energy": 27.711531, "activity_lines": [ 0.214667, 0.216636, 0.211021, 0.202544 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.198, "volume": 217000, "typical_volume": 158340.0, "trend": 0.193078, "fair_value": 0.144336, "relative_strength": -7.637808, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.402583, "energy": 16.48506, "activity_lines": [ 0.209333, 0.212636, 0.210627, 0.202922 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.2, "volume": 4400, "typical_volume": 73825.0, "trend": 0.194051, "fair_value": 0.144775, "relative_strength": -7.928023, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.9777, "energy": 11.991992, "activity_lines": [ 0.205133, 0.209673, 0.210289, 0.203368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.2, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 73825.0, "trend": 0.195024, "fair_value": 0.145213, "relative_strength": -8.466442, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.327415, "energy": 12.085722, "activity_lines": [ 0.202933, 0.207164, 0.209857, 0.203752 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.205, "volume": 100300, "typical_volume": 75090.0, "trend": 0.195595, "fair_value": 0.145811, "relative_strength": -7.048478, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.832429, "energy": 17.533016, "activity_lines": [ 0.202733, 0.206109, 0.209807, 0.204396 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }