{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fb8e8ee-0661-4bf1-a0cf-6a37a3fcaaa5", "symbol": "DEV", "name": "DevEx Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.493, "architecture_energy": 20.826, "architecture_maturity": 28.685, "architecture_confidence": 92.831, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.24, "rotation_up": 34.68, "upward_expansion": 60.82, "deceleration": 86.14, "rotation_down": 22.27, "downward_expansion": 13.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.244667, 0.248727, 0.233643, 0.225796 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.235, "trend_reference": 0.219667, "distance_from_trend": 0.069803, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.195971, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.199156, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 21.950212, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.175, "excess_performance": 0.111294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069803, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.143105, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.199156, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.193385, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.219502, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200787, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.175, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.998673, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5269854, "relative_activity": 1.072142, "balance": 0.998673, "dry_up": 1.374149, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.200491, "annualized_volatility": 1.10828, "from_high_reference": -0.276923, "from_low_reference": 2.092105 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.219667, "fair_value_reference": 0.195971, "structural_low": 0.145, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.000611, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.024943, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.18, "worst_return": -0.216216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.077987, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.07162, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.277778, "worst_return": -0.492063, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.224969, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.204682, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.467742, "worst_return": -0.714286, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.274194, 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"amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.176471, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.574359, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170732, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.160494, "active": false }, { "regime": 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0.256333, 0.238182, 0.221214, 0.217215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.255, "volume": 6817438, "typical_volume": 4578989.9, "trend": 0.212833, "fair_value": 0.197734, "relative_strength": 46.800358, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.107948, "energy": 40.924485, "activity_lines": [ 0.256667, 0.243727, 0.22519, 0.220108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.26, "volume": 8245024, "typical_volume": 4848930.85, "trend": 0.215833, "fair_value": 0.197221, "relative_strength": 47.186332, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.029689, "energy": 37.870644, "activity_lines": [ 0.255333, 0.249273, 0.229619, 0.223151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.24, "volume": 6684870, "typical_volume": 4945285.9, "trend": 0.218167, "fair_value": 0.19674, "relative_strength": 30.530154, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.291863, "energy": 28.206693, "activity_lines": [ 0.251333, 0.25, 0.231952, 0.22471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.235, "volume": 5269854, "typical_volume": 4915259.05, "trend": 0.219667, "fair_value": 0.195971, "relative_strength": 21.950212, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.493007, "energy": 20.825958, "activity_lines": [ 0.244667, 0.248727, 0.233643, 0.225796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }