{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "6fbe547b-86a0-4529-80ed-aea0691d0cb6",
    "symbol": "WAF",
    "name": "Siltronic AG",
    "exchange": "VIE",
    "country": "AT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^ATX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 6.873,
    "architecture_energy": 15.004,
    "architecture_maturity": 67.818,
    "architecture_confidence": 80.416,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 56.98,
        "rotation_up": 18.69,
        "upward_expansion": 48.21,
        "deceleration": 84.73,
        "rotation_down": 37.2,
        "downward_expansion": 28.55
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        81.153334,
        84.404545,
        85.978571,
        80.494624
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 78.300003,
    "trend_reference": 72.566666,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.079008,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 62.777413,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247264,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 6.765454,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.505769,
    "excess_performance": 0.331523,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.079008,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.220476,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.247264,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.361527,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.067655,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.66444,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.505769,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.324661,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1614,
      "relative_activity": 1.064188,
      "balance": 1.324661,
      "dry_up": 0.829625,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.132626,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.685243,
      "from_high_reference": -0.271628,
      "from_low_reference": 1.456085
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 72.566666,
      "fair_value_reference": 62.777413,
      "structural_low": 48.48,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": -0.011685,
        "positive_rate": 0.416667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.416667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.044017,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.258763,
        "worst_return": -0.152973,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.006484,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000464,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.262788,
        "worst_return": -0.13624,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.005524,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.053757,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.12393,
        "worst_return": -0.141447,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.473066,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.34321,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.319476,
        "worst_return": -0.498482,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-09-08",
        "end": "2023-09-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.108145,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-10-06",
        "end": "2024-02-23",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.110132,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-03-01",
        "end": "2024-04-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.076266,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-04-12",
        "end": "2024-05-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.114608,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-05-10",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.433488,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.122877,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.101865,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.084911,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-09-12",
        "end": "2025-09-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.240492,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-09-26",
        "end": "2025-09-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-10-03",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.19699,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-01-09",
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        "return": 0.047697,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.153513,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "direction": 86.129476,
        "energy": 84.215932,
        "activity_lines": [
          66.023332,
          61.187272,
          57.297714,
          55.082688
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 78.75,
        "volume": 688,
        "typical_volume": 1767.5,
        "trend": 53.992666,
        "fair_value": 61.221316,
        "relative_strength": 42.327239,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.137757,
        "energy": 90.123777,
        "activity_lines": [
          71.493333,
          64.869999,
          59.612761,
          56.734989
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "volume": 369,
        "typical_volume": 1769.45,
        "trend": 55.497666,
        "fair_value": 61.474749,
        "relative_strength": 73.209464,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 95.377104,
        "energy": 97.591607,
        "activity_lines": [
          82.093334,
          71.772727,
          63.698333,
          59.632236
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 88.300003,
        "volume": 615,
        "typical_volume": 1800.2,
        "trend": 56.629333,
        "fair_value": 61.613804,
        "relative_strength": 53.275518,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.383235,
        "energy": 90.694249,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.103335,
          75.996364,
          66.522381,
          61.748516
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 93.300003,
        "volume": 2835,
        "typical_volume": 1941.95,
        "trend": 57.779333,
        "fair_value": 61.721225,
        "relative_strength": 56.275869,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.282956,
        "energy": 91.532425,
        "activity_lines": [
          89.893336,
          80.450001,
          69.623572,
          64.114366
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 104.199997,
        "volume": 4542,
        "typical_volume": 2049.75,
        "trend": 59.457667,
        "fair_value": 61.884401,
        "relative_strength": 66.987384,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.444192,
        "energy": 94.224683,
        "activity_lines": [
          95.710001,
          86.240909,
          73.560714,
          67.109247
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 90.800003,
        "volume": 4,
        "typical_volume": 1938.5,
        "trend": 60.968333,
        "fair_value": 62.004659,
        "relative_strength": 45.24672,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 67.33252,
        "energy": 66.25025,
        "activity_lines": [
          95.080001,
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          75.970238,
          69.131333
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 93.099998,
        "volume": 2776,
        "typical_volume": 2029.7,
        "trend": 62.586333,
        "fair_value": 62.116131,
        "relative_strength": 43.144765,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 64.748883,
        "activity_lines": [
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          71.204344
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 92.449997,
        "volume": 2,
        "typical_volume": 2027.6,
        "trend": 64.245333,
        "fair_value": 62.277082,
        "relative_strength": 34.925505,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 63.342501,
        "energy": 61.381459,
        "activity_lines": [
          93.916666,
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          80.635952,
          73.131032
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 82.650002,
        "volume": 3,
        "typical_volume": 1913.65,
        "trend": 65.365,
        "fair_value": 62.369253,
        "relative_strength": 22.126888,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.739804,
        "energy": 42.46333,
        "activity_lines": [
          89.876666,
          91.137273,
          81.720476,
          74.31843
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 92.5,
        "volume": 1455,
        "typical_volume": 1829.1,
        "trend": 66.793,
        "fair_value": 62.531152,
        "relative_strength": 32.163929,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.24316,
        "energy": 39.124362,
        "activity_lines": [
          89.83,
          91.647273,
          83.597143,
          76.069075
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 88.599998,
        "volume": 3106,
        "typical_volume": 1882.4,
        "trend": 68.161,
        "fair_value": 62.62821,
        "relative_strength": 27.276478,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 42.055826,
        "energy": 31.327156,
        "activity_lines": [
          89.263333,
          91.120909,
          84.892857,
          77.475978
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 86.949997,
        "volume": 925,
        "typical_volume": 1850.9,
        "trend": 69.526666,
        "fair_value": 62.719709,
        "relative_strength": 26.436815,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.640341,
        "energy": 24.626855,
        "activity_lines": [
          88.293332,
          90.115454,
          85.868333,
          78.688172
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 83.300003,
        "volume": 21,
        "typical_volume": 1560.6,
        "trend": 70.753333,
        "fair_value": 62.761459,
        "relative_strength": 18.62789,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 36.509877,
        "energy": 22.705735,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.516667,
          88.663636,
          86.35619,
          79.576774
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 78.349998,
        "volume": 2473,
        "typical_volume": 1493.45,
        "trend": 71.67,
        "fair_value": 62.770538,
        "relative_strength": 10.817322,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 24.805157,
        "energy": 16.859458,
        "activity_lines": [
          83.699999,
          86.402727,
          86.218571,
          80.066881
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 78.300003,
        "volume": 1614,
        "typical_volume": 1516.65,
        "trend": 72.566666,
        "fair_value": 62.777413,
        "relative_strength": 6.765454,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 6.872718,
        "energy": 15.003808,
        "activity_lines": [
          81.153334,
          84.404545,
          85.978571,
          80.494624
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}