{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fc5da6c-3d2f-447d-bc9b-443b97d08770", "symbol": "IFGL", "name": "ISHARES INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED REAL ESTATE ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.754, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -2.859, "architecture_energy": 13.099, "architecture_maturity": 14.758, "architecture_confidence": 73.719, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.39, "rotation_up": 37.06, "upward_expansion": 31.9, "deceleration": 42.63, "rotation_down": 16.33, "downward_expansion": 40.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.93556, 22.740502, 22.73363, 22.841058 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.105, "trend_reference": 23.072487, "distance_from_trend": 0.001409, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.321882, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.136952, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.360518, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.035339, "excess_performance": -0.222793, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001409, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002904, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.136952, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040571, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113605, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015321, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035339, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.466862, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53537, "relative_activity": 1.079511, "balance": 1.466862, "dry_up": 1.000544, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027454, "annualized_volatility": 0.192644, "from_high_reference": -0.079633, "from_low_reference": 0.081353 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.072487, "fair_value_reference": 20.321882, "structural_low": 21.366744, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.005925, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.001313, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.082915, "worst_return": -0.050474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.018624, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.018309, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.121208, "worst_return": -0.069416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.050909, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051981, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.192733, "worst_return": -0.164785, 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false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054875, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050819, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004194, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.071234, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.011636, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", 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23.060243, "fair_value": 20.231628, "relative_strength": -9.948447, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.870028, "energy": 18.696151, "activity_lines": [ 22.571633, 22.497262, 22.657587, 22.862017 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.68, "volume": 55258, "typical_volume": 53443.95, "trend": 23.062171, "fair_value": 20.25728, "relative_strength": -8.62452, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.140049, "energy": 16.459802, "activity_lines": [ 22.638307, 22.530491, 22.654258, 22.837485 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.0884, "volume": 51188, "typical_volume": 52582.75, "trend": 23.075846, "fair_value": 20.289213, "relative_strength": -7.236768, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.020551, "energy": 13.931577, "activity_lines": [ 22.80578, 22.638479, 22.694252, 22.839178 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.105, "volume": 53537, "typical_volume": 49593.75, "trend": 23.072487, "fair_value": 20.321882, "relative_strength": -11.360518, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.859441, "energy": 13.099216, "activity_lines": [ 22.93556, 22.740502, 22.73363, 22.841058 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }