{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fd0a76f-7502-4132-a6f3-ec61e916ec5c", "symbol": "FGI", "name": "FGI Industries Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.753, "architecture_energy": 49.616, "architecture_maturity": 17.471, "architecture_confidence": 94.445, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.85, "rotation_up": 16.56, "upward_expansion": 10.47, "deceleration": 39.71, "rotation_down": 55.84, "downward_expansion": 83.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.425667, 4.536727, 5.07381, 5.145097 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.57, "trend_reference": 5.335, "distance_from_trend": -0.143393, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.374803, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.149736, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.688263, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.212069, "excess_performance": -0.399523, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143393, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087072, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.149736, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.270219, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.266883, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.329955, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.212069, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.762496, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68813, "relative_activity": 0.099483, "balance": 0.762496, "dry_up": 0.190353, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.225104, "annualized_volatility": 1.378163, "from_high_reference": -0.637874, "from_low_reference": 0.455414 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.335, "fair_value_reference": 5.374803, "structural_low": 3.14, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.01966, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.022151, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 1.424084, "worst_return": -0.199817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.001744, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.124459, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.336776, "worst_return": -0.137168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.063832, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.232592, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.201514, "worst_return": -0.472612, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01519, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.4175, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.3407, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.366962, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.309278, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", 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"volume": 315013, "typical_volume": 693355.55, "trend": 5.424333, "fair_value": 5.433137, "relative_strength": -28.266188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.956744, "energy": 47.681036, "activity_lines": [ 4.440333, 4.748, 5.22919, 5.270968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.28, "volume": 48402, "typical_volume": 690331.1, "trend": 5.376667, "fair_value": 5.402239, "relative_strength": -27.919876, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.683828, "energy": 49.29475, "activity_lines": [ 4.388, 4.606273, 5.138524, 5.19714 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.57, "volume": 68813, "typical_volume": 691704.5, "trend": 5.335, "fair_value": 5.374803, "relative_strength": -26.688263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.752945, "energy": 49.615893, "activity_lines": [ 4.425667, 4.536727, 5.07381, 5.145097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }