{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fd1600b-189a-44ef-ad1d-f5e27c8cda0a", "symbol": "1820", "name": "BAAN Holding Group Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.803, "architecture_energy": 25.866, "architecture_maturity": 32.107, "architecture_confidence": 90.59, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.39, "rotation_up": 33.27, "upward_expansion": 62.36, "deceleration": 84.62, "rotation_down": 25.4, "downward_expansion": 14.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.04, 2.051091, 2.01019, 1.962882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 2.07, "trend_reference": 1.922667, "distance_from_trend": 0.07663, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.289744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095969, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.753119, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.089474, "excess_performance": 0.121303, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07663, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029081, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.095969, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08665, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.057531, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.117215, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089474, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.363259, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 28057655, "relative_activity": 1.092857, "balance": 3.363259, "dry_up": 0.671704, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05537, "annualized_volatility": 0.288346, "from_high_reference": -0.151639, "from_low_reference": 0.262195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.922667, "fair_value_reference": 2.289744, "structural_low": 1.64, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.007874, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.009327, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.014981, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.026217, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.011867, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.026217, "worst_return": -0.026217, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.007491, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.056785, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.007491, "worst_return": 0.007491, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.035573, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.118143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102362, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079646, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040816, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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24531337.25, "trend": 1.898333, "fair_value": 2.295513, "relative_strength": 3.455491, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.224293, "energy": 52.766698, "activity_lines": [ 2.069333, 2.037273, 1.977857, 1.937054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.05, "volume": 11514917, "typical_volume": 24219442.5, "trend": 1.907333, "fair_value": 2.293077, "relative_strength": 4.385096, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.916696, "energy": 40.145531, "activity_lines": [ 2.062, 2.045818, 1.991143, 1.946839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.0, "volume": 14250577, "typical_volume": 24391919.9, "trend": 1.914, "fair_value": 2.29109, "relative_strength": 4.311036, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.43679, "energy": 25.421763, "activity_lines": [ 2.036, 2.043091, 1.998095, 1.952817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.07, "volume": 28057655, "typical_volume": 25673682.85, "trend": 1.922667, "fair_value": 2.289744, "relative_strength": 5.753119, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.803406, "energy": 25.865569, "activity_lines": [ 2.04, 2.051091, 2.01019, 1.962882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }