{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fd425db-32db-41d3-b069-d8a108425113", "symbol": "MEP", "name": "MEP Infrastructure Developers Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.613, "architecture_energy": 82.572, "architecture_maturity": 70.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.072, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.24, "rotation_up": 9.47, "upward_expansion": 18.83, "deceleration": 39.51, "rotation_down": 80.25, "downward_expansion": 94.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.56, 0.618364, 0.73819, 0.808968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.57, "trend_reference": 0.939667, "distance_from_trend": -0.393402, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.446859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.895353, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -58.425361, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.55814, "excess_performance": -0.51443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.393402, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.347, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.895353, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064575, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.584254, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.252317, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.55814, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0325, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 219255, "relative_activity": 0.391136, "balance": 0.0325, "dry_up": 1.571154, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097166, "annualized_volatility": 0.38167, "from_high_reference": -0.801394, "from_low_reference": 0.14 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.939667, "fair_value_reference": 5.446859, "structural_low": 0.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.004065, "positive_rate": 0.487179, "directional_follow_through": 0.512821, "median_excess_return": -0.038254, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.578406, "worst_return": -0.486381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.133333, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.062712, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.575385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.042573, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.140643, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.768116, "worst_return": -0.59, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.21327, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.7225, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.103306, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.150259, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.273743, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110656, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.194313, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.262195, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.486486, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.35, "volume": 2619978, "typical_volume": 2914338.35, "trend": 13.596667, "fair_value": 18.155769, "relative_strength": -28.001385, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"relative_strength": -59.720304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.952412, "energy": 94.262409, "activity_lines": [ 0.61, 0.687091, 0.794, 0.867591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.52, "volume": 1703186, "typical_volume": 581442.45, "trend": 0.977333, "fair_value": 5.521731, "relative_strength": -62.30642, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.976457, "energy": 92.364083, "activity_lines": [ 0.569333, 0.644182, 0.762714, 0.835247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.57, "volume": 219255, "typical_volume": 560558.95, "trend": 0.939667, "fair_value": 5.446859, "relative_strength": -58.425361, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.613397, "energy": 82.571699, "activity_lines": [ 0.56, 0.618364, 0.73819, 0.808968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }