{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6fd6a117-f7f0-4fae-bf86-9fdaa2c7e8e7", "symbol": "GLOBAL", "name": "Global Education Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.987, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.659, "architecture_energy": 8.372, "architecture_maturity": 30.204, "architecture_confidence": 68.283, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.92, "rotation_up": 25.24, "upward_expansion": 41.82, "deceleration": 76.54, "rotation_down": 30.35, "downward_expansion": 33.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 102.100678, 102.668936, 103.453019, 102.553326 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 101.839996, "trend_reference": 99.731542, "distance_from_trend": 0.021141, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 80.821725, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.260057, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.140072, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.199953, "excess_performance": 0.243662, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021141, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068538, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.260057, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273885, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.151401, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.421463, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.199953, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.239654, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 194231, "relative_activity": 0.572688, "balance": 0.239654, "dry_up": 0.495614, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073645, "annualized_volatility": 0.420427, "from_high_reference": -0.164561, "from_low_reference": 0.853993 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 99.731542, "fair_value_reference": 80.821725, "structural_low": 81.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.003098, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005317, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.338169, "worst_return": -0.182105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.088024, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.057719, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.750349, "worst_return": -0.160618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.123196, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.146964, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 3.521447, "worst_return": -0.354961, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.009778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.033073, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068141, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.237852, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015123, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": 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"2026-07-31", "close": 104.059998, "volume": 163136, "typical_volume": 345760.45, "trend": 99.049209, "fair_value": 80.599185, "relative_strength": 19.499156, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.772062, "energy": 11.028272, "activity_lines": [ 102.152262, 102.958323, 103.565287, 102.373275 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 101.839996, "volume": 194231, "typical_volume": 339156.65, "trend": 99.731542, "fair_value": 80.821725, "relative_strength": 15.140072, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.658943, "energy": 8.371541, "activity_lines": [ 102.100678, 102.668936, 103.453019, 102.553326 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }